Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Fair Value 2026

GEO · General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) trades at $30.25, approximately 106% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $14.66. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GEO
Price
$30.25
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $14.66 -51.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $13.18 -56.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $14.58 -51.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $10.66 -64.8%

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What Is Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's intrinsic value is estimated at $16.02, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $30.25. With 12 out of 13 models flagging downside (-47.0% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $31.49 (+4.1%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $5.39 (-82.2%). This +86.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GEO?

13 of 13 models are currently active for GEO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates GEO's intrinsic value at $14.66, implying -51.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GEO Rank in General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs?

Among 6 General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs stocks, GEO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GEO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GEO a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Geo Group Inc (The) REIT. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Geo Group Inc (The) REIT is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +86.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GEO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GEO's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Geo Group Inc (The) REIT Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs stocks with 13-model coverage

IBPInstalled Building Products, InQOC 10.0LENLennar CorporationQOC 9.1SPHLSPRINGVIEW HOLDINGS LTDQOC 7.1FBGLFBS Global LimitedQOC 5.8ONEGOneConstruction Group LimitedQOC 2.2

Read investment analysis: IBP · LEN · SPHL · FBGL · ONEG

Frequently Asked Questions About Geo Group Inc (The) REIT

What is Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $14.66. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GEO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.25, 1 of 13 active models suggest GEO may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's business model in General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for GEO?

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GEO?

CirclFi analyzes GEO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is GEO a value trap in 2026?

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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