The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Fair Value 2026

GEO · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) trades at $32.60, versus a $16.84 median fair value across its 11 active models — 48.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GEO
Price
$32.60
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +38.2% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $16.84, 48.3% below the current price of $32.60. Estimates range from $0.95 to $49.36. GEO scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GEO’s -48.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GEO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.36 -83.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $16.84 -48.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $45.06 +38.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.95 -97.1%
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What Is GEO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.95 to $49.36

CirclFi's 11 active models place The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) between $0.95 and $49.36 per share, a spread of 288% of the median. The median of that range — $16.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GEO, against a current price of $32.60.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$0.95median $16.84$49.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$0.95
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$49.36
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GEO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GEO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The GEO Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $16.84, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $32.60. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-48.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $49.36 (+51.4%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $0.95 (-97.1%). This +148.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The GEO Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GEO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for GEO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GEO is $16.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GEO Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, GEO ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

The GEO Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GEO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GEO a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for The GEO Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, The GEO Group, Inc. is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GEO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GEO's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The GEO Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

BCOThe Brink's CompanyQOC 8.6MGMistras Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8ADTADT Inc.QOC 7.5CIXCompX International Inc.QOC 8.8EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0VRMEVerifyMe, Inc.QOC 6.7AGSSAmeriguard Security Services, Inc.QOC 4.5NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BCO · MG · BRC · ADT · CIX · EVLV · VRME · AGSS · NSSC · ALLE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GEO?

7 companies across all industries closest to GEO’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

GHCGraham Holdings CompanyQOC 7.8SSLSasol LimitedQOC 7.7AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.QOC 7.8AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BHRBBurke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.QOC 7.8MTWThe Manitowoc Company, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GHC · SSL · AGO · AIG · BHRB · MTW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The GEO Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The GEO Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)'s intrinsic value at $16.84 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.95 to $49.36. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GEO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.60, 2 of 11 active models suggest GEO may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $16.84, 48.3% below the current price of $32.60 — a consensus view that GEO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The GEO Group, Inc.'s business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for GEO?

The GEO Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GEO?

CirclFi analyzes GEO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GEO?

Of the 11 models currently active on GEO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $49.36 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $0.95. CirclFi's published fair value for GEO is the median of that range, $16.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 288% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GEO a value trap in 2026?

The GEO Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) has a median fair value of $16.84 — 48.3% below the current price of $32.60 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GEO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GEO valuation
  • Financial statements: The GEO Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000923796) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GEO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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