Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) Fair Value 2026

NSSC · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) trades at $35.28, versus a $17.97 median fair value across its 11 active models — 49.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $24.87.

Key Facts

Ticker
NSSC
Price
$35.28
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $17.97, 49.1% below the current price of $35.28. Estimates range from $6.97 to $37.30. NSSC scores 9.6/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NSSC’s -49.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NSSC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $24.87 -29.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.30 -70.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $17.97 -49.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $18.35 -48.0%
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What Is NSSC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $6.97 to $37.30

CirclFi's 11 active models place Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) between $6.97 and $37.30 per share, a spread of 169% of the median. The median of that range — $17.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NSSC, against a current price of $35.28.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$6.97median $17.97$37.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.97
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$37.30
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NSSC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NSSC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $17.97, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $35.28. With 10 out of 11 models flagging downside (-49.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $37.30 (+5.7%), versus ML-RIV at $6.97 (-80.2%). This +86.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NSSC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NSSC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NSSC is $17.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $24.87 on its own, implying -29.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NSSC Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, NSSC ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places NSSC in the top tier.

Napco Security Technologies, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NSSC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NSSC a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Napco Security Technologies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. is rated at 9.6/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +86.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NSSC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NSSC's 11 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Napco Security Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

GFAIGuardforce AI Co., LimitedQOC 1.9ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3SPCBSuperCom Ltd.QOC 2.1MSAMSA Safety IncorporatedQOC 9.3SNTSenstar Technologies CorporationQOC 2.9CIXCompX International Inc.QOC 8.8BCOThe Brink's CompanyQOC 8.6VRMEVerifyMe, Inc.QOC 6.7BAERBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: GFAI · ALLE · SPCB · MSA · SNT · CIX · BCO · VRME · BAER

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NSSC?

7 companies across all industries closest to NSSC’s Quality of Company score of 9.6/10.

QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7ZMZoom Communications, Inc.QOC 9.6USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.QOC 9.7PODDInsulet CorporationQOC 9.6HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding LtdQOC 9.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: QLYS · ZM · USLM · PODD · HRTG · CRDO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Napco Security Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC)'s intrinsic value at $17.97 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.97 to $37.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $24.87 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NSSC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.28, 1 of 11 active models suggest NSSC may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $17.97, 49.1% below the current price of $35.28 — a consensus view that NSSC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for NSSC?

Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NSSC?

CirclFi analyzes NSSC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NSSC?

Of the 11 models currently active on NSSC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $37.30 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.97. CirclFi's published fair value for NSSC is the median of that range, $17.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 169% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NSSC a value trap in 2026?

Napco Security Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NSSC) has a median fair value of $17.97 — 49.1% below the current price of $35.28 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NSSC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NSSC valuation
  • Financial statements: Napco Security Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000069633) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NSSC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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