Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) Fair Value 2026

BAER · Security & Protection Services · 2026-08-27

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) trades at $1.15. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker: BAER
Price: $1.15
Quality Score: 6.0/10
Value Trap Risk: 0/100
Models Active: 1/13
Last Updated: 2026-08-27

Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +16.3% upside with 45% confidence

Risk: Limited model coverage (1/13) may reduce confidence

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BAER?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model	Fair Value	Upside
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative · Medium Conviction	$1.34	+16.3%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.. Trading at $1.15 against an estimated intrinsic value of $1.34, 1 of 1 active models flag meaningful upside of +16.3% at the median.

What Do the Models Say About BAER?

1 of 13 models are currently active for BAER. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BAER Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, BAER ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BAER a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BAER a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BAER valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BAER's 1 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

SUGPSU Group Holdings LimitedQOC 6.1 AGSSAmeriguard Security Services, Inc.QOC 4.5 BKYIBIO-key International, Inc.QOC 6.1 DETXLiberty Defense Holdings, Ltd.QOC 3.6 IVDAIveda Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.1 SNTSenstar Technologies CorporationQOC 2.9 GFAIGuardforce AI Co., LimitedQOC 1.9 BCOThe Brink's CompanyQOC 8.6 NLNLI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9 NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6 ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: SUGP · AGSS · BKYI · DETX · IVDA · SNT · GFAI · BCO · NL · NSSC · ALLE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BAER?

7 companies across all industries closest to BAER’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

NXRTNexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.QOC 6.0 XMAXXMax Inc.QOC 6.0 PRMBPrimo Brands CorporationQOC 6.0 COOKTraeger, Inc.QOC 6.0 SPNDSpindletop Oil & Gas Co.QOC 6.0 LSAKLesaka Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.0 NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NXRT · XMAX · PRMB · COOK · SPND · LSAK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER). The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BAER overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.15, 1 of 1 active models suggest BAER may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for BAER?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BAER?

CirclFi analyzes BAER with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BAER a value trap in 2026?

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. (BAER) a Quality of Company score of 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BAER/ · Methodology

Primary sources for this BAER valuation

Financial statements: Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001941536) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BAER as of 2026-08-27; valuations recomputed 2026-08-27.