Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) Fair Value 2026

STWD · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) trades at $15.81, versus a $14.11 median fair value across its 6 active models — 10.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STWD
Price
$15.81
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $14.11, 10.8% below the current price of $15.81. Estimates range from $5.65 to $20.18. STWD scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. STWD’s -10.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Starwood Property Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STWD?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.57 -7.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $13.65 -13.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.47 -21.1%
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What Is STWD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $5.65 to $20.18

CirclFi's 6 active models place Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) between $5.65 and $20.18 per share, a spread of 103% of the median. The median of that range — $14.11 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STWD, against a current price of $15.81.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.65median $14.11$20.18
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$5.65
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$20.18
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for STWD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STWD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Starwood Property Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.11. Trading at its current price of $15.81, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -10.8%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +27.6% (fair value: $20.18), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -64.3% ($5.65). The spread between these extremes — +91.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About STWD?

6 of 13 models are currently active for STWD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STWD is $14.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STWD Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, STWD ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

The REIT - Mortgage sector introduces analytical considerations specific to REIT businesses. For Starwood Property Trust, Inc., metrics like weighted average lease term (WALT) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is STWD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STWD a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Starwood Property Trust, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STWD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STWD's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Starwood Property Trust, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

LADRLadder Capital CorpQOC 7.2SACHSachem Capital Corp.QOC 6.9CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment CorporationQOC 7.2CIMChimera Investment CorporationQOC 6.9TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2SEVNSeven Hills Realty TrustQOC 6.8RCReady Capital CorporationQOC 6.0FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2REFIChicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 7.6ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: LADR · SACH · CHMI · CIM · TRTX · SEVN · RC · FBRT · REFI · ORC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STWD?

7 companies across all industries closest to STWD’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

AGCCAgencia Comercial Spirits LtdQOC 6.9CRSRCorsair Gaming, Inc.QOC 6.9GMABGenmab A/SQOC 6.9RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.QOC 6.9GRFSGrifols, S.A.QOC 6.9AVBHAvidbank Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AGCC · CRSR · GMAB · RGR · GRFS · AVBH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Starwood Property Trust, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Starwood Property Trust, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD)'s intrinsic value at $14.11 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.65 to $20.18. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STWD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.81, 1 of 6 active models suggest STWD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $14.11, 10.8% below the current price of $15.81 — a consensus view that STWD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Starwood Property Trust, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for STWD?

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STWD?

CirclFi analyzes STWD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STWD?

Of the 6 models currently active on STWD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $20.18 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $5.65. CirclFi's published fair value for STWD is the median of that range, $14.11, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 103% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STWD a value trap in 2026?

Starwood Property Trust, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD) has a median fair value of $14.11 — 10.8% below the current price of $15.81 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STWD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STWD valuation
  • Financial statements: Starwood Property Trust, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001465128) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STWD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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