What Is STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S (STWD) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $21.94. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $16.66 (implied upside of +31.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +318.1% (fair value: $69.65), while First Chicago is the most conservative at -70.8% ($4.86). The spread between these extremes — +388.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About STWD?
12 of 13 models are currently active for STWD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates STWD's intrinsic value at $23.56, implying +41.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does STWD Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?
Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, STWD ranks #135 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.
See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →
The Real Estate Investment Trusts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to REIT businesses. For STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S, metrics like weighted average lease term (WALT) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is STWD a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STWD a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S scores 6.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +388.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every STWD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across STWD's 12 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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