Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH) Fair Value 2026

AVBH · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH) trades at $32.16, approximately 69% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $104.22. QOC: 5.8/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AVBH
Price
$32.16
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +224.1% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $30.78, within 4.3% of the current price of $32.16. Estimates range from $5.91 to $104.22. AVBH scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Avidbank Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $104.22 +224.1%
Earnings Power Value
Low Conviction
 $13.42 -58.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $40.03 +24.5%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $9.58 -70.2%

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What Is Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $37.85, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $32.16. With an average implied return of +17.7% across a split 4–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +305.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +224.1% (fair value: $104.22), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -81.6% ($5.91). The spread between these extremes — +305.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AVBH?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AVBH. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AVBH's intrinsic value at $104.22, implying +224.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AVBH Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 15 Banks - Regional stocks, AVBH ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

As a financial institution, Avidbank Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where return on tangible equity is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AVBH should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AVBH a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AVBH. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Avidbank Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +305.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AVBH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AVBH's 11 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Avidbank Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

AMALAmalgamated Financial Corp.QOC 9.0AFBIAffinity Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.0ABCBAmeris BancorpQOC 8.6ACNBACNB CorporationQOC 8.4ATLOAmes National CorporationQOC 8.4ASBAssociated Banc-CorpQOC 8.4AUBAtlantic Union Bankshares CorpoQOC 8.0AUBNAuburn National Bancorporation,QOC 7.7

Read investment analysis: AMAL · AFBI · ABCB · ACNB · ATLO

Frequently Asked Questions About Avidbank Holdings, Inc.

What is Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $104.22. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AVBH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.16, 5 of 11 active models suggest AVBH may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $30.78, within 4.3% of the current price of $32.16 — a consensus view that AVBH is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for AVBH?

Avidbank Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AVBH?

CirclFi analyzes AVBH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AVBH a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AVBH at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Avidbank Holdings, Inc. (AVBH) has a median fair value of $30.78 — within 4.3% of the current price of $32.16 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AVBH/ · Methodology

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