Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) Fair Value 2026

HBNC · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) trades at $19.56, versus a $17.46 median fair value across its 3 active models — 10.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HBNC
Price
$19.56
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +59.5% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $17.46, 10.7% below the current price of $19.56. Estimates range from $4.76 to $31.19. HBNC scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HBNC’s -10.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HBNC?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.76 -75.7%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $31.19 +59.5%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $17.46 -10.7%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is HBNC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $4.76 to $31.19

CirclFi's 3 active models place Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) between $4.76 and $31.19 per share, a spread of 151% of the median. The median of that range — $17.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HBNC, against a current price of $19.56.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$4.76median $17.46$31.19
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$4.76
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$31.19
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HBNC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HBNC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Horizon Bancorp, Inc. at its current price of $19.56. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $17.46 (-10.7% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +59.5% (fair value: $31.19), while EPV is the most conservative at -75.7% ($4.76). The spread between these extremes — +135.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HBNC?

3 of 13 models are currently active for HBNC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HBNC is $17.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HBNC Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, HBNC ranks #309 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a financial institution, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates in a sector where CET1 capital ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HBNC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HBNC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HBNC a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Horizon Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HBNC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HBNC's 3 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

MSBIMidland States Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9MSBBMercer Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9WSBFWaterstone Financial, Inc.QOC 6.9BSACBanco Santander-ChileQOC 6.8AVBHAvidbank Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9CIZNCitizens Holding CompanyQOC 6.8TCBSTexas Community Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.6TMPTompkins Financial CorporationQOC 8.2JMSBJohn Marshall Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MSBI · MSBB · WSBF · BSAC · AVBH · CIZN · TCBS · TMP · JMSB · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HBNC?

7 companies across all industries closest to HBNC’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 6.9BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9MQMarqeta, Inc.QOC 6.9EXFYExpensify, Inc.QOC 6.9HRIHerc Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9CLFDClearfield, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GLAD · BKH · MQ · EXFY · HRI · CLFD · NVDA

Where Does HBNC Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

HBNC is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Horizon Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC)'s intrinsic value at $17.46 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.76 to $31.19. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HBNC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.56, 1 of 3 active models suggest HBNC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $17.46, 10.7% below the current price of $19.56 — a consensus view that HBNC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for HBNC?

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HBNC?

CirclFi analyzes HBNC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HBNC?

Of the 3 models currently active on HBNC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $31.19 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $4.76. CirclFi's published fair value for HBNC is the median of that range, $17.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 151% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HBNC a value trap in 2026?

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. (HBNC) has a median fair value of $17.46 — 10.7% below the current price of $19.56 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HBNC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HBNC valuation
  • Financial statements: Horizon Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000706129) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HBNC as of ; valuations recomputed .