Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Fair Value 2026

CGAU · Gold and Silver Ores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) trades at $15.86, approximately 16% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $13.73. QOC: 6.3/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CGAU
Price
$15.86
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $13.73 -13.4%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $10.38 -34.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $11.04 -30.4%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $7.19 -54.7%

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What Is Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Centerra Gold Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $11.39. Trading at $15.86, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.2%), as 9 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $16.10 (+1.5%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $5.70 (-64.0%). This +65.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Centerra Gold Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CGAU?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CGAU. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CGAU's intrinsic value at $13.73, implying -13.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CGAU Rank in Gold and Silver Ores?

Among 64 Gold and Silver Ores stocks, CGAU ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Gold and Silver Ores Stocks →

Centerra Gold Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CGAU a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for CGAU. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Centerra Gold Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Centerra Gold Inc. earns a quality score of 6.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +65.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CGAU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CGAU's 13 active models, average confidence is 19%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Centerra Gold Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold and Silver Ores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Gold and Silver Ores stocks with 13-model coverage

FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.4NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3DRDDRDGOLD LimitedQOC 9.2AUAngloGold Ashanti PLCQOC 9.2HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company LimQOC 9.1IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.7KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 8.1

Read investment analysis: FSM · NEM · DRD · AU · HMY

See all Gold and Silver Ores stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Centerra Gold Inc.

What is Centerra Gold Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $13.73. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.86, 2 of 13 active models suggest CGAU may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Centerra Gold Inc.'s business model in Gold and Silver Ores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for CGAU?

Centerra Gold Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CGAU?

CirclFi analyzes CGAU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CGAU a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for CGAU at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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