Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Fair Value 2026

CGAU · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) trades at $24.25, versus a $9.08 median fair value across its 11 active models — 62.6% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
CGAU
Price
$24.25
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $9.08, 62.6% below the current price of $24.25. Estimates range from $5.26 to $36.26. CGAU scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CGAU’s -62.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -28.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Centerra Gold Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CGAU?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.67 -76.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $5.26 -78.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.11 -58.3%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $12.66 -47.8%
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What Is CGAU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.26 to $36.26

CirclFi's 11 active models place Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) between $5.26 and $36.26 per share, a spread of 341% of the median. The median of that range — $9.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CGAU, against a current price of $24.25.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.26median $9.08$36.26
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.26
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$36.26
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CGAU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CGAU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Centerra Gold Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $9.08. Trading at its current price of $24.25, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -62.6%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $36.26 (+49.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $5.26 (-78.3%). This +127.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Centerra Gold Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CGAU?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CGAU. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CGAU is $9.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.67 on its own, implying -76.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CGAU Rank in Gold?

Among 57 Gold stocks, CGAU ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Centerra Gold Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CGAU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CGAU a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Centerra Gold Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Centerra Gold Inc. earns a quality score of 6.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CGAU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CGAU's 11 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Centerra Gold Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2OROR Royalties Inc.QOC 6.8IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.4NAMMNamib MineralsQOC 6.7AUAngloGold Ashanti plcQOC 8.4SASeabridge Gold Inc.QOC 6.2GROYGold Royalty Corp.QOC 5.5HYMCHycroft Mining Holding CorporationQOC 4.3CMCLCaledonia Mining Corporation PlcQOC 2.6FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: KGC · OR · IDR · NAMM · AU · SA · GROY · HYMC · CMCL · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CGAU?

7 companies across all industries closest to CGAU’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

NLNLI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9LIENChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.QOC 6.9NEOGNeogen CorporationQOC 6.9ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9CCSCentury Communities, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NL · MIAX · LIEN · NEOG · ATEC · CCS · NVDA

Where Does CGAU Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

CGAU is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Centerra Gold Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Centerra Gold Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU)'s intrinsic value at $9.08 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.26 to $36.26. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.25, 2 of 11 active models suggest CGAU may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $9.08, 62.6% below the current price of $24.25 — a consensus view that CGAU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Centerra Gold Inc.'s business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for CGAU?

Centerra Gold Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CGAU?

CirclFi analyzes CGAU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CGAU?

Of the 11 models currently active on CGAU, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $36.26 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.26. CirclFi's published fair value for CGAU is the median of that range, $9.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 341% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CGAU a value trap in 2026?

Centerra Gold Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) has a median fair value of $9.08 — 62.6% below the current price of $24.25 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CGAU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CGAU valuation
  • Financial statements: Centerra Gold Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001854640) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CGAU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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