First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) Fair Value 2026

FGBI · Savings Institution, Federally Chartered ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) trades at $9.92. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FGBI
Price
$9.92
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +124.3% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $14.07 +41.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $22.25 +124.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $4.86 -51.0%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $0.34 -96.6%

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What Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $19.05. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $9.92 (implied upside of +92.0%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 10 bullish models. Notably, Sentiment SOTP sees the most upside at +471.1% (fair value: $56.65), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -96.6% ($0.34). The spread between these extremes — +567.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FGBI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FGBI. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FGBI Rank in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered?

Among 36 Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks, FGBI ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks →

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FGBI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FGBI a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +567.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FGBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FGBI's 10 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks with 13-model coverage

CPBICentral Plains Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.5MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3HTBHomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.1AXAxos Financial, Inc.QOC 9.0FCAPFirst Capital, Inc.QOC 8.7CLSTCatalyst Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.5BVFLBV Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5BCBPBCB Bancorp, Inc. (NJ)QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: CPBI · MGYR · HTB · AX · FCAP

See all Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.

What is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FGBI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.92, 6 of 10 active models suggest FGBI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for FGBI?

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FGBI?

CirclFi analyzes FGBI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FGBI a value trap in 2026?

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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