First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) Fair Value 2026

FGBI · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) trades at $8.11, versus a $6.05 median fair value across its 5 active models — 25.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FGBI
Price
$8.11
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $6.05, 25.3% below the current price of $8.11. Estimates range from $0.18 to $19.63. FGBI scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FGBI’s -25.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FGBI?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.67 -42.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.05 -25.3%
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What Is FGBI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $0.18 to $19.63

CirclFi's 5 active models place First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) between $0.18 and $19.63 per share, a spread of 321% of the median. The median of that range — $6.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FGBI, against a current price of $8.11.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$0.18median $6.05$19.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.18
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$19.63
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FGBI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FGBI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $6.05. Trading at $8.11, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -25.3%), as 3 of 5 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +142.0% (fair value: $19.63), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -97.8% ($0.18). The spread between these extremes — +239.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FGBI?

5 of 13 models are currently active for FGBI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FGBI is $6.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FGBI Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, FGBI ranks #314 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that cost-to-income ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including loan portfolio growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FGBI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FGBI a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +239.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FGBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FGBI's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

BAFNBayFirst Financial Corp.QOC 6.8INBKFirst Internet BancorpQOC 6.7EGBNEagle Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.8NEWTNewtekOne, Inc.QOC 6.7BLXBladex Inc.QOC 6.8SNNFSeneca Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.7CASHPathward Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2FMBMF & M Bank Corp.QOC 7.8ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BAFN · INBK · EGBN · NEWT · BLX · SNNF · CASH · CUBI · FMBM · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FGBI?

7 companies across all industries closest to FGBI’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

QBTSD-Wave Quantum Inc.QOC 6.7XBIOXenetic Biosciences, Inc.QOC 6.7BURBurford Capital LimitedQOC 6.7GTEGran Tierra Energy Inc.QOC 6.7SMASmartStop Self Storage REIT, Inc.QOC 6.8MMIMarcus & Millichap, Inc.QOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: QBTS · XBIO · BUR · GTE · SMA · MMI · NVDA

Where Does FGBI Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

FGBI is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)'s intrinsic value at $6.05 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.18 to $19.63. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FGBI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.11, 2 of 5 active models suggest FGBI may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $6.05, 25.3% below the current price of $8.11 — a consensus view that FGBI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for FGBI?

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FGBI?

CirclFi analyzes FGBI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FGBI?

Of the 5 models currently active on FGBI, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $19.63 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.18. CirclFi's published fair value for FGBI is the median of that range, $6.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 321% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FGBI a value trap in 2026?

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI) has a median fair value of $6.05 — 25.3% below the current price of $8.11 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FGBI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FGBI valuation
  • Financial statements: First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001408534) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FGBI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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