HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (HTB) Fair Value 2026

HTB · Savings Institution, Federally Chartered ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (HTB) trades at $49.03, approximately 35% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $75.64. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTB
Price
$49.03
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +109.9% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$75.64 +54.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$11.80 -75.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$70.42 +43.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$102.89 +109.9%

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What Is HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (HTB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. at $49.03. With an estimated intrinsic value of $72.78 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +48.4%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $172.20 (+251.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $11.80 (-75.9%). This +327.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HTB?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HTB. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HTB's intrinsic value at $75.64, implying +54.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTB Rank in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered?

Among 36 Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks, HTB ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places HTB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks →

HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HTB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTB a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. scores 9.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +327.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTB's 12 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CPBI · MGYR · AX · FCAP · CLST

See all Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.

What is HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. (HTB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $75.64. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.03, 8 of 12 active models suggest HTB may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for HTB?

HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTB?

CirclFi analyzes HTB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HTB a value trap in 2026?

HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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