Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL) Fair Value 2026

HFBL · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL) trades at $25.50, versus a $19.70 median fair value across its 6 active models — 22.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HFBL
Price
$25.50
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +37.0% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $19.70, 22.8% below the current price of $25.50. Estimates range from $13.86 to $34.94. HFBL scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HFBL’s -22.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HFBL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.18 -32.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $21.41 -16.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.94 +37.0%
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What Is HFBL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $13.86 to $34.94

CirclFi's 6 active models place Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL) between $13.86 and $34.94 per share, a spread of 107% of the median. The median of that range — $19.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HFBL, against a current price of $25.50.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Markov DDM
$13.86median $19.70$34.94
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$13.86
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$34.94
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HFBL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HFBL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana's intrinsic value is estimated at $19.70. Trading at its current price of $25.50, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -22.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $34.94 (+37.0%), versus Regime Cross at $13.86 (-45.6%). This +82.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HFBL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for HFBL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HFBL is $19.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HFBL Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, HFBL ranks #203 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including credit quality trends — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HFBL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HFBL a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana earns a quality score of 7.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +82.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HFBL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HFBL's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

CPBICentral Plains Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8BPRNPrinceton Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8SFSTSouthern First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.9BKUBankUnited, Inc.QOC 7.8CCFNMuncy Columbia Financial CorporationQOC 7.9TFCTruist Financial CorporationQOC 7.8UBCPUnited Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.QOC 8.7FSBCFive Star BancorpQOC 8.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CPBI · BPRN · SFST · BKU · CCFN · TFC · UBCP · UCB · FSBC · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HFBL?

5 companies across all industries closest to HFBL’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.QOC 7.8MDTMedtronic plcQOC 7.8JXNJackson Financial Inc.QOC 7.8RYNRayonier Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AEO · MDT · JXN · RYN · NVDA

Where Does HFBL Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

HFBL is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana’s Valuation?

What is Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL)'s intrinsic value at $19.70 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.86 to $34.94. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HFBL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.50, 1 of 6 active models suggest HFBL may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $19.70, 22.8% below the current price of $25.50 — a consensus view that HFBL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for HFBL?

Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HFBL?

CirclFi analyzes HFBL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HFBL?

Of the 6 models currently active on HFBL, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $34.94 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $13.86. CirclFi's published fair value for HFBL is the median of that range, $19.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 107% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HFBL a value trap in 2026?

Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL) has a median fair value of $19.70 — 22.8% below the current price of $25.50 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HFBL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HFBL valuation

Market data for HFBL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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