KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) Fair Value 2026

KREF · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) trades at $7.61, versus a $4.33 median fair value across its 2 active models — 43.1% below the current price. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KREF
Price
$7.61
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.8/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $4.33, 43.1% below the current price of $7.61. Estimates range from $3.11 to $5.55. KREF scores 4.8/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KREF’s -43.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KREF?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.55 -27.1%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $3.11 -59.1%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.33. Trading at its current price of $7.61, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 2 of 2 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -43.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $5.55 (-27.1%), versus Regime Cross at $3.11 (-59.1%). This +32.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About KREF?

2 of 13 models are currently active for KREF. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for KREF is $4.33 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KREF Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, KREF ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s positioning within the REIT - Mortgage segment means that funds from operations (FFO) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including tenant credit quality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KREF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KREF a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. earns a quality score of 4.8/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +32.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KREF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KREF's 2 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

RPTRithm Property Trust Inc.QOC 5.1ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 5.2FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2LFTLument Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 5.3MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment CorporationQOC 7.2ARRARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.QOC 6.5

Read investment analysis: RPT · ORC · CMTG · FBRT · LFT · MITT · IVR · CHMI · ARR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KREF?

7 companies across all industries closest to KREF’s Quality of Company score of 4.8/10.

VSEEVSee Health, Inc.QOC 4.8WYTCWYTEC INTERNATIONAL INCQOC 4.8APREAprea Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8DMRADamora Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8WORXSCWorx CorpQOC 4.8NNVCNanoViricides, Inc.QOC 4.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VSEE · WYTC · APRE · DMRA · WORX · NNVC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.’s Valuation?

What is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF)'s intrinsic value at $4.33 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.11 to $5.55. The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KREF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.61, 0 of 2 active models suggest KREF may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $4.33, 43.1% below the current price of $7.61 — a consensus view that KREF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for KREF?

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KREF?

CirclFi analyzes KREF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KREF a value trap in 2026?

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) has a median fair value of $4.33 — 43.1% below the current price of $7.61 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KREF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KREF valuation
  • Financial statements: KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001631596) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KREF as of ; valuations recomputed .