KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I (KREF) Fair Value 2026

KREF · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I (KREF) trades at $7.36, approximately 82% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $41.39. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KREF
Price
$7.36
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +462.4% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.8/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.36)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$41.39 +462.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$2.57 -65.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$24.32 +230.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$9.37 +27.3%

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What Is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I (KREF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I is potentially undervalued at its current price of $7.36. Based on our 13-model framework, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $16.80 — representing +128.2% implied upside — with 9 out of 11 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $41.39 (+462.4%), versus EPV at $2.57 (-65.0%). This +527.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About KREF?

11 of 13 models are currently active for KREF. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates KREF's intrinsic value at $41.39, implying +462.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KREF Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 183 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, KREF ranks #171 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I's positioning within the Real Estate Investment Trusts segment means that funds from operations (FFO) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including tenant credit quality — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is KREF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KREF a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I earns a quality score of 4.8/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +527.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KREF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KREF's 11 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CUBE · EGP · SELF · EPRT · HHH

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I

What is KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I (KREF) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $41.39. The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KREF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.36, 9 of 11 active models suggest KREF may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I's business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for KREF?

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I's QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KREF?

CirclFi analyzes KREF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KREF a value trap in 2026?

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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