Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (ESTA) Fair Value 2026

ESTA · Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (ESTA) trades at $87.90, approximately 277% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $23.29. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESTA
Price
$87.90
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($87.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$23.29 -73.5%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$4.85 -94.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$11.67 -86.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$2.92 -96.7%

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What Is Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (ESTA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at $19.99, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $87.90. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-77.3% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at -3.4% (fair value: $84.90), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -97.7% ($2.04). The spread between these extremes — +94.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ESTA?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ESTA. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates ESTA's intrinsic value at $23.29, implying -73.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESTA Rank in Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies?

Among 27 Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies stocks, ESTA ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ESTA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ESTA a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Establishment Labs Holdings Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc's fundamental quality profile registers 7.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESTA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESTA's 10 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Establishment Labs Holdings Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Establishment Labs Holdings Inc

What is Establishment Labs Holdings Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (ESTA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $23.29. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESTA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $87.90, 0 of 10 active models suggest ESTA may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Establishment Labs Holdings Inc's business model in Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for ESTA?

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESTA?

CirclFi analyzes ESTA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ESTA a value trap in 2026?

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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