Outset Medical, Inc. (OM) Fair Value 2026

OM · Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Outset Medical, Inc. (OM) trades at $4.54. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OM
Price
$4.54
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +43.0% upside with 22% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$6.49 +43.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$5.89 +29.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$3.22 -29.1%
Dynamic NAV
High Conviction
$6.22 +36.9%

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What Is Outset Medical, Inc. (OM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Outset Medical, Inc. at $4.54. With an estimated intrinsic value of $5.81 and 7 of 10 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +28.0%. The most optimistic model, EROIC, places fair value at $8.70 (+91.6%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.79 (-60.6%). This +152.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Outset Medical, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About OM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for OM. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OM Rank in Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus?

Among 25 Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus stocks, OM ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

Outset Medical, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OM a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Outset Medical, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Outset Medical, Inc. scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +152.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OM's 10 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Outset Medical, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: INMD · ELMD · LIVN · CNMD · ITGR

Frequently Asked Questions About Outset Medical, Inc.

What is Outset Medical, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Outset Medical, Inc. (OM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.54, 8 of 10 active models suggest OM may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Outset Medical, Inc.'s business model in Electromedical & Electrotherapeutic Apparatus.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for OM?

Outset Medical, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OM?

CirclFi analyzes OM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is OM a value trap in 2026?

Outset Medical, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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