DNOW Inc. (DNOW) Fair Value 2026

DNOW · Industrial Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, DNOW Inc. (DNOW) trades at $15.88, versus a $13.55 median fair value across its 7 active models — 14.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.20.

Key Facts

Ticker
DNOW
Price
$15.88
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +0.3% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is DNOW Inc. (DNOW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, DNOW Inc. (DNOW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $13.55, 14.7% below the current price of $15.88. Estimates range from $0.50 to $32.53. DNOW scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 33/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. DNOW’s -14.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Industrial Distribution sector median is -27.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy DNOW Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DNOW?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.88)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.20 -54.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.55 -14.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $15.93 +0.3%
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What Is DNOW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.50 to $32.53

CirclFi's 7 active models place DNOW Inc. (DNOW) between $0.50 and $32.53 per share, a spread of 236% of the median. The median of that range — $13.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DNOW, against a current price of $15.88.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.50median $13.55$32.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.50
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$32.53
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DNOW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DNOW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is DNOW Inc. (DNOW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, DNOW Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $13.55. Trading at $15.88, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -14.7%), as 4 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $32.53 (+104.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $0.50 (-96.8%). This +201.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about DNOW Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DNOW?

7 of 13 models are currently active for DNOW. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DNOW is $13.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.20 on its own, implying -54.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DNOW Rank in Industrial Distribution?

Among 24 Industrial Distribution stocks, DNOW ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

The Industrial Distribution sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For DNOW Inc., metrics like margin expansion trajectory provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DNOW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DNOW a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for DNOW Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, DNOW Inc. scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +201.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DNOW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DNOW's 7 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy DNOW Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Industrial Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

TITNTitan Machinery Inc.QOC 7.3DSGRDistribution Solutions Group, Inc.QOC 6.7TLIHTen-League International Holdings LimitedQOC 7.4XMTRXometry, Inc.QOC 6.6BXCBlueLinx Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4ALTGAlta Equipment Group Inc.QOC 6.3TXRPTX Rail Products, IncQOC 4.4GICGlobal Industrial CompanyQOC 8.4MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.QOC 7.9GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.QOC 9.3AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: TITN · DSGR · TLIH · XMTR · BXC · ALTG · TXRP · GIC · MSM · GWW · AIT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DNOW?

7 companies across all industries closest to DNOW’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

AUNAAuna SAQOC 7.2ESTAEstablishment Labs Holdings Inc.QOC 7.2PCORProcore Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.2CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment CorporationQOC 7.2NHINational Health Investors, Inc.QOC 7.2IOTSamsara Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AUNA · ESTA · PCOR · CHMI · NHI · IOT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About DNOW Inc.’s Valuation?

What is DNOW Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts DNOW Inc. (DNOW)'s intrinsic value at $13.55 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.50 to $32.53. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.20 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DNOW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.88, 3 of 7 active models suggest DNOW may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $13.55, 14.7% below the current price of $15.88 — a consensus view that DNOW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits DNOW Inc.'s business model in Industrial Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for DNOW?

DNOW Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DNOW?

CirclFi analyzes DNOW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DNOW?

Of the 7 models currently active on DNOW, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $32.53 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.50. CirclFi's published fair value for DNOW is the median of that range, $13.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 236% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DNOW a value trap in 2026?

DNOW Inc.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, DNOW Inc. (DNOW) has a median fair value of $13.55 — 14.7% below the current price of $15.88 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DNOW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DNOW valuation
  • Financial statements: DNOW Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001599617) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DNOW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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