NOV Inc. (NOV) Fair Value 2026

NOV · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NOV Inc. (NOV) trades at $20.99, versus a $22.42 median fair value across its 12 active models — 6.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.73.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOV
Price
$20.99
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +248.6% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NOV Inc. (NOV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, NOV Inc. (NOV) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $22.42, within 6.8% of the current price of $20.99. Estimates range from $4.06 to $73.16. NOV scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NOV’s +6.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -18.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NOV Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOV?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.73 -48.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.80 -0.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $73.16 +248.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.44 -40.7%
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What Is NOV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $4.06 to $73.16

CirclFi's 12 active models place NOV Inc. (NOV) between $4.06 and $73.16 per share, a spread of 308% of the median. The median of that range — $22.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOV, against a current price of $20.99.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$4.06median $22.42$73.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$4.06
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$73.16
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NOV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NOV Inc. (NOV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NOV Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $22.42, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $20.99. While the median implied return is +6.8%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +329.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $73.16 (+248.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $4.06 (-80.7%). This +329.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NOV Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NOV?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NOV. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NOV is $22.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.73 on its own, implying -48.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOV Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 53 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, NOV ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places NOV in the top tier.

As a energy sector, NOV Inc. operates in a sector where reserve replacement ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NOV should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NOV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOV a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for NOV Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, NOV Inc. is rated at 8.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +329.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOV's 12 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NOV Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

HLXHelix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.QOC 8.0SLBSLB N.V.QOC 8.0NGSNatural Gas Services Group, Inc.QOC 8.3FLOCFlowco Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0RESRPC, Inc.QOC 8.3USACUSA Compression Partners, LPQOC 8.0PUMPProPetro Holding Corp.QOC 7.5ACDCProFrac Holding Corp.QOC 5.7OIIOceaneering International, Inc.QOC 8.8WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: HLX · SLB · NGS · FLOC · RES · USAC · PUMP · ACDC · OII · WHD · FTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOV?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOV’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

BWABorgWarner Inc.QOC 8.0IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0SSTKShutterstock, Inc.QOC 8.0CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.0LNWOLight & Wonder, Inc.QOC 8.0SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BWA · IVR · SSTK · CMT · LNWO · SBH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NOV Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NOV Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NOV Inc. (NOV)'s intrinsic value at $22.42 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.06 to $73.16. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.73 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.99, 7 of 12 active models suggest NOV may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $22.42, within 6.8% of the current price of $20.99 — a consensus view that NOV is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NOV Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for NOV?

NOV Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOV?

CirclFi analyzes NOV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOV?

Of the 12 models currently active on NOV, First Chicago is the most bullish at $73.16 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $4.06. CirclFi's published fair value for NOV is the median of that range, $22.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 308% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOV a value trap in 2026?

NOV Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, NOV Inc. (NOV) has a median fair value of $22.42 — within 6.8% of the current price of $20.99 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOV valuation
  • Financial statements: NOV Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001021860) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NOV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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