HNI Corporation (HNI) Fair Value 2026

HNI · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, HNI Corporation (HNI) trades at $49.13, versus a $26.13 median fair value across its 11 active models — 46.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $18.09.

Key Facts

Ticker
HNI
Price
$49.13
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is HNI Corporation (HNI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, HNI Corporation (HNI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $26.13, 46.8% below the current price of $49.13. Estimates range from $6.83 to $99.48. HNI scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HNI’s -46.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances sector median is -13.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HNI Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HNI?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($49.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.09 -63.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.13 -46.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $44.89 -8.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.85 -73.8%
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What Is HNI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $6.83 to $99.48

CirclFi's 11 active models place HNI Corporation (HNI) between $6.83 and $99.48 per share, a spread of 355% of the median. The median of that range — $26.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HNI, against a current price of $49.13.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$6.83median $26.13$99.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.83
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$99.48
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HNI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HNI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is HNI Corporation (HNI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HNI Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $26.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $49.13. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-46.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +102.5% (fair value: $99.48), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -86.1% ($6.83). The spread between these extremes — +188.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HNI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HNI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HNI is $26.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $18.09 on its own, implying -63.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HNI Rank in Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances?

Among 34 Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, HNI ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places HNI in the top tier.

HNI Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HNI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HNI a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for HNI Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, HNI Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +188.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HNI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HNI's 11 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HNI Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks with 13-model coverage

BSETBassett Furniture Industries, IncorporatedQOC 8.1MLKNMillerKnoll, Inc.QOC 7.9VIOTViomi Technology Co., LtdQOC 8.1LEGLeggett & Platt, IncorporatedQOC 7.9LZBLa-Z-Boy IncorporatedQOC 8.3MBCMasterBrand, Inc.QOC 7.8VIRCVirco Mfg. CorporationQOC 7.0MWYNMarwynn Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.6FLXSFlexsteel Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: BSET · MLKN · VIOT · LEG · LZB · MBC · VIRC · MWYN · FLXS · ALH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HNI?

7 companies across all industries closest to HNI’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

ITICInvestors Title CompanyQOC 8.0UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.0REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc.QOC 8.0FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.0UNHUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedQOC 8.0TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ITIC · UBSI · REXR · FEDU · UNH · TRS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About HNI Corporation’s Valuation?

What is HNI Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HNI Corporation (HNI)'s intrinsic value at $26.13 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.83 to $99.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $18.09 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HNI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $49.13, 1 of 11 active models suggest HNI may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $26.13, 46.8% below the current price of $49.13 — a consensus view that HNI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HNI Corporation's business model in Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for HNI?

HNI Corporation's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HNI?

CirclFi analyzes HNI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HNI?

Of the 11 models currently active on HNI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $99.48 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.83. CirclFi's published fair value for HNI is the median of that range, $26.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 355% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HNI a value trap in 2026?

HNI Corporation's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, HNI Corporation (HNI) has a median fair value of $26.13 — 46.8% below the current price of $49.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HNI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HNI valuation
  • Financial statements: HNI Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000048287) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HNI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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