UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Fair Value 2026

UNH · Healthcare Plans ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) trades at $395.05, versus a $382.94 median fair value across its 6 active models — 3.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UNH
Price
$395.05
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +77.7% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $382.94, within 3.1% of the current price of $395.05. Estimates range from $197.44 to $701.97. UNH scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. UNH’s -3.1% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UNH?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($395.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $238.72 -39.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $402.74 +1.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $701.97 +77.7%
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What Is UNH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $197.44 to $701.97

CirclFi's 6 active models place UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) between $197.44 and $701.97 per share, a spread of 132% of the median. The median of that range — $382.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UNH, against a current price of $395.05.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Markov DDM
$197.44median $382.94$701.97
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$197.44
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$701.97
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for UNH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UNH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $382.94, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $395.05. With a median implied return of -3.1% across a split 2–3 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +127.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +77.7% (fair value: $701.97), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -50.0% ($197.44). The spread between these extremes — +127.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About UNH?

6 of 13 models are currently active for UNH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UNH is $382.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UNH Rank in Healthcare Plans?

Among 12 Healthcare Plans stocks, UNH ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places UNH in the top tier.

Within the Healthcare Plans space, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated competes in an environment where revenue per drug often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is UNH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UNH a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UNH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UNH's 6 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Healthcare Plans Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Healthcare Plans stocks with 13-model coverage

PGNYProgyny, Inc.QOC 8.6PFHOPacific Health Care Organization, Inc.QOC 8.5ELVElevance Health, Inc.QOC 8.4CIThe Cigna GroupQOC 7.9MOHMolina Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.7HUMHumana Inc.QOC 7.6CNCCentene CorporationQOC 7.4ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.2OSCROscar Health, Inc.QOC 7.1CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp.QOC 6.5MRAIMarpai, Inc.QOC 4.2

Read investment analysis: PGNY · PFHO · ELV · CI · MOH · HUM · CNC · ALHC · OSCR · CLOV · MRAI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UNH?

7 companies across all industries closest to UNH’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

WEXWEX Inc.QOC 8.0HNIHNI CorporationQOC 8.0AXRAMREP CorporationQOC 8.0REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc.QOC 8.0PACGrupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.0ITICInvestors Title CompanyQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WEX · HNI · AXR · REXR · PAC · ITIC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About UnitedHealth Group Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)'s intrinsic value at $382.94 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $197.44 to $701.97. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UNH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $395.05, 3 of 6 active models suggest UNH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $382.94, within 3.1% of the current price of $395.05 — a consensus view that UNH is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's business model in Healthcare Plans.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for UNH?

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UNH?

CirclFi analyzes UNH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UNH?

Of the 6 models currently active on UNH, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $701.97 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $197.44. CirclFi's published fair value for UNH is the median of that range, $382.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 132% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UNH a value trap in 2026?

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) has a median fair value of $382.94 — within 3.1% of the current price of $395.05 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UNH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UNH valuation
  • Financial statements: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000731766) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UNH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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