Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Fair Value 2026

MOH · Healthcare Plans ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) trades at $198.75, versus a $197.93 median fair value across its 5 active models — 0.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MOH
Price
$198.75
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $197.93, essentially in line with the current price of $198.75. Estimates range from $115.80 to $270.18. MOH scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MOH’s -0.4% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Molina Healthcare, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MOH?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($198.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $177.62 -10.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $197.93 -0.4%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including Markov DDM, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 5 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MOH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $115.80 to $270.18

CirclFi's 5 active models place Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) between $115.80 and $270.18 per share, a spread of 78% of the median. The median of that range — $197.93 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MOH, against a current price of $198.75.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$115.80median $197.93$270.18
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$115.80
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$270.18
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MOH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $197.93, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $198.75. While the median implied return is -0.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +77.7% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $270.18 (+35.9%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $115.80 (-41.7%). This +77.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MOH?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MOH. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MOH is $197.93 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MOH Rank in Healthcare Plans?

Among 12 Healthcare Plans stocks, MOH ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s positioning within the Healthcare Plans segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including late-stage pipeline catalysts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MOH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MOH a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Molina Healthcare, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Molina Healthcare, Inc. scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +77.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MOH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MOH's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Molina Healthcare, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Healthcare Plans Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Healthcare Plans stocks with 13-model coverage

PGNYProgyny, Inc.QOC 8.6PFHOPacific Health Care Organization, Inc.QOC 8.5ELVElevance Health, Inc.QOC 8.4UNHUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedQOC 8.0CIThe Cigna GroupQOC 7.9HUMHumana Inc.QOC 7.6CNCCentene CorporationQOC 7.4ALHCAlignment Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.2OSCROscar Health, Inc.QOC 7.1CLOVClover Health Investments, Corp.QOC 6.5MRAIMarpai, Inc.QOC 4.2

Read investment analysis: PGNY · PFHO · ELV · UNH · CI · HUM · CNC · ALHC · OSCR · CLOV · MRAI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MOH?

7 companies across all industries closest to MOH’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

KRGKite Realty Group TrustQOC 7.7CMCCommercial Metals CompanyQOC 7.7NVAXNovavax, Inc.QOC 7.7NUSNu Skin Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.7CPNGCoupang, Inc.QOC 7.7SPBSpectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KRG · CMC · NVAX · NUS · CPNG · SPB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Molina Healthcare, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)'s intrinsic value at $197.93 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $115.80 to $270.18. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MOH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $198.75, 2 of 5 active models suggest MOH may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $197.93, essentially in line with the current price of $198.75 — a consensus view that MOH is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s business model in Healthcare Plans.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for MOH?

Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MOH?

CirclFi analyzes MOH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MOH?

Of the 5 models currently active on MOH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $270.18 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $115.80. CirclFi's published fair value for MOH is the median of that range, $197.93, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 78% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MOH a value trap in 2026?

Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) has a median fair value of $197.93 — essentially in line with the current price of $198.75 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MOH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MOH valuation
  • Financial statements: Molina Healthcare, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001179929) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MOH as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 5 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MOH.

Unlock All 5 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for MOH Unlock All 5 — $39/mo