Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) Fair Value 2026

TRUP · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) trades at $29.65, versus a $16.59 median fair value across its 3 active models — 44.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRUP
Price
$29.65
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +39.9% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $16.59, 44.1% below the current price of $29.65. Estimates range from $0.66 to $41.49. TRUP scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TRUP’s -44.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Trupanion, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TRUP?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($29.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.66 -97.8%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $41.49 +39.9%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $16.59 -44.1%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is TRUP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.66 to $41.49

CirclFi's 3 active models place Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) between $0.66 and $41.49 per share, a spread of 246% of the median. The median of that range — $16.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TRUP, against a current price of $29.65.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.66median $16.59$41.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.66
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$41.49
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TRUP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TRUP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Trupanion, Inc. at its current price of $29.65. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $16.59 (-44.1% vs price), with 2 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +39.9% (fair value: $41.49), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -97.8% ($0.66). The spread between these extremes — +137.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TRUP?

3 of 13 models are currently active for TRUP. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TRUP is $16.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRUP Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, TRUP ranks #29 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places TRUP in the top tier.

Within the Insurance - Property & Casualty space, Trupanion, Inc. competes in an environment where combined ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TRUP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TRUP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Trupanion, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Trupanion, Inc. is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +137.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRUP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRUP's 3 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Trupanion, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

BOWBowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.QOC 8.1SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.1CNACNA Financial CorporationQOC 8.2LLoews CorporationQOC 8.0SLDESlide Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 7.9NODKNI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.7TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc.QOC 9.1CBChubb LimitedQOC 8.7HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: BOW · SKWD · CNA · L · SLDE · SAFT · NODK · TRV · CB · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TRUP?

6 companies across all industries closest to TRUP’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

FIGSFIGS, Inc.QOC 8.1ZBRAZebra Technologies CorporationQOC 8.1NPBNorthpointe Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.1PLPCPreformed Line Products CompanyQOC 8.1SHCSotera Health CompanyQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FIGS · ZBRA · NPB · PLPC · SHC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Trupanion, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Trupanion, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP)'s intrinsic value at $16.59 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.66 to $41.49. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRUP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $29.65, 1 of 3 active models suggest TRUP may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $16.59, 44.1% below the current price of $29.65 — a consensus view that TRUP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Trupanion, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for TRUP?

Trupanion, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRUP?

CirclFi analyzes TRUP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TRUP?

Of the 3 models currently active on TRUP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $41.49 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.66. CirclFi's published fair value for TRUP is the median of that range, $16.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 246% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TRUP a value trap in 2026?

Trupanion, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Trupanion, Inc. (TRUP) has a median fair value of $16.59 — 44.1% below the current price of $29.65 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TRUP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TRUP valuation
  • Financial statements: Trupanion, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001371285) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TRUP as of ; valuations recomputed .