Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) Fair Value 2026

HMN · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) trades at $51.15, versus a $50.65 median fair value across its 6 active models — 1.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HMN
Price
$51.15
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $50.65, essentially in line with the current price of $51.15. Estimates range from $30.89 to $72.98. HMN scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HMN’s -1.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Horace Mann Educators Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HMN?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($51.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.95 -29.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $45.58 -10.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.89 -39.6%
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What Is HMN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $30.89 to $72.98

CirclFi's 6 active models place Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) between $30.89 and $72.98 per share, a spread of 83% of the median. The median of that range — $50.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HMN, against a current price of $51.15.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$30.89median $50.65$72.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$30.89
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$72.98
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HMN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Horace Mann Educators Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $51.15. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $50.65 (-1.0% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $72.98 (+42.7%), versus Markov DDM at $30.89 (-39.6%). This +82.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HMN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for HMN. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HMN is $50.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HMN Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, HMN ranks #34 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

As a risk-bearing enterprise, Horace Mann Educators Corporation operates in a sector where investment float is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HMN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HMN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HMN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Horace Mann Educators Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Horace Mann Educators Corporation is rated at 7.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +82.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HMN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HMN's 6 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Horace Mann Educators Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

HIPOHippo Holdings Inc.QOC 7.8GBLIGlobal Indemnity Group, LLCQOC 7.6SAFTSafety Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 7.9ROOTRoot, Inc.QOC 7.2LLoews CorporationQOC 8.0PRCHPorch Group, Inc.QOC 6.9KNSLKinsale Capital Group, Inc.QOC 9.5CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: HIPO · GBLI · SAFT · ROOT · L · PRCH · KNSL · CINF · WRB · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HMN?

7 companies across all industries closest to HMN’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

MOMOHello Group Inc.QOC 7.7PFBXPeoples Financial CorporationQOC 7.7BNTBrookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.QOC 7.7SPFXStandard Premium Finance Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7BOHBank of Hawaii CorporationQOC 7.7VLYValley National BancorpQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MOMO · PFBX · BNT · SPFX · BOH · VLY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Horace Mann Educators Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Horace Mann Educators Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)'s intrinsic value at $50.65 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $30.89 to $72.98. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HMN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $51.15, 3 of 6 active models suggest HMN may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $50.65, essentially in line with the current price of $51.15 — a consensus view that HMN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Horace Mann Educators Corporation's business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for HMN?

Horace Mann Educators Corporation's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HMN?

CirclFi analyzes HMN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HMN?

Of the 6 models currently active on HMN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $72.98 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $30.89. CirclFi's published fair value for HMN is the median of that range, $50.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 83% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HMN a value trap in 2026?

Horace Mann Educators Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) has a median fair value of $50.65 — essentially in line with the current price of $51.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HMN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HMN valuation
  • Financial statements: Horace Mann Educators Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000850141) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HMN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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