Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) Fair Value 2026

HMN · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) trades at $52.60, approximately 77% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $227.52. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HMN
Price
$52.60
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +332.5% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($52.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$227.52 +332.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$33.60 -36.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$89.27 +69.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$46.32 -11.9%

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What Is Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Horace Mann Educators Corporati at its current price of $52.60. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $93.65 (+78.0% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $263.13 (+400.2%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $18.95 (-64.0%). This +464.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HMN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HMN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HMN's intrinsic value at $227.52, implying +332.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HMN Rank in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance?

Among 50 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks, HMN ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks →

As a risk-bearing enterprise, Horace Mann Educators Corporati operates in a sector where investment float is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HMN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HMN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HMN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Horace Mann Educators Corporati. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Horace Mann Educators Corporati is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +464.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HMN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HMN's 12 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Horace Mann Educators Corporati Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HCI · KNSL · HG · SKWD · RNR

See all Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Horace Mann Educators Corporati

What is Horace Mann Educators Corporati's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Horace Mann Educators Corporati (HMN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $227.52. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HMN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $52.60, 4 of 12 active models suggest HMN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Horace Mann Educators Corporati's business model in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for HMN?

Horace Mann Educators Corporati's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HMN?

CirclFi analyzes HMN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HMN a value trap in 2026?

Horace Mann Educators Corporati's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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