Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) Fair Value 2026

DBD · Calculating & Accounting Machines (No Electronic Computers) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) trades at $85.57, approximately 86% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $45.98. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DBD
Price
$85.57
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($85.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$45.98 -46.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$8.60 -89.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$59.02 -31.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$32.26 -62.3%

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What Is Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $82.42. Trading at its current price of $85.57, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -3.7%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +425.4% (fair value: $449.56), while EPV is the most conservative at -89.9% ($8.60). The spread between these extremes — +515.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DBD?

12 of 13 models are currently active for DBD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DBD's intrinsic value at $45.98, implying -46.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DBD Rank in Calculating & Accounting Machines (No Electronic Computers)?

Among 4 Calculating & Accounting Machines (No Electronic Computers) stocks, DBD ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is DBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DBD a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated scores 7.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +515.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DBD's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Calculating & Accounting Machines (No Electronic Computers) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

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Frequently Asked Questions About Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated

What is Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated (DBD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $45.98. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $85.57, 2 of 12 active models suggest DBD may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated's business model in Calculating & Accounting Machines (No Electronic Computers).

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for DBD?

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DBD?

CirclFi analyzes DBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DBD a value trap in 2026?

Diebold Nixdorf Incorporated's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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