Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) Fair Value 2026

DBD · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) trades at $67.35, versus a $75.88 median fair value across its 11 active models — 12.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $32.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
DBD
Price
$67.35
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +399.6% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $75.88, 12.7% above the current price of $67.35. Estimates range from $10.47 to $336.51. DBD scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DBD’s +12.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DBD?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($67.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.78 -51.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $75.88 +12.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $336.51 +399.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.97 -18.4%
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What Is DBD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $10.47 to $336.51

CirclFi's 11 active models place Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) between $10.47 and $336.51 per share, a spread of 430% of the median. The median of that range — $75.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DBD, against a current price of $67.35.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$10.47median $75.88$336.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$10.47
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$336.51
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DBD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DBD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at $75.88, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $67.35. With a median implied return of +12.7% across a split 6–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +484.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +399.6% (fair value: $336.51), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -84.5% ($10.47). The spread between these extremes — +484.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DBD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for DBD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DBD is $75.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $32.78 on its own, implying -51.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DBD Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, DBD ranks #85 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated's positioning within the Software - Application segment means that annual recurring revenue (ARR) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DBD a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +484.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DBD's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

MAPSWM Technology, Inc.QOC 7.7VTSIVirTra, Inc.QOC 7.6RBBNRibbon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6APIAgora, Inc.QOC 7.8EVCMEverCommerce Inc.QOC 7.6UPLDUpland Software, Inc.QOC 6.3SFCXSUPA Consolidated Inc.QOC 4.5UBERUber Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: MAPS · VTSI · RBBN · CCC · API · EVCM · UPLD · SFCX · UBER · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DBD?

7 companies across all industries closest to DBD’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

BOHBank of Hawaii CorporationQOC 7.7MOMOHello Group Inc.QOC 7.7BNTBrookfield Wealth Solutions Ltd.QOC 7.7ROCKGibraltar Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7FLXBingEx LimitedQOC 7.7HMNHorace Mann Educators CorporationQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BOH · MOMO · BNT · ROCK · FLX · HMN · NVDA

Where Does DBD Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

DBD is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD)'s intrinsic value at $75.88 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $10.47 to $336.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $32.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $67.35, 6 of 11 active models suggest DBD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $75.88, 12.7% above the current price of $67.35 — a consensus view that DBD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for DBD?

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DBD?

CirclFi analyzes DBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DBD?

Of the 11 models currently active on DBD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $336.51 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $10.47. CirclFi's published fair value for DBD is the median of that range, $75.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 430% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DBD a value trap in 2026?

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) has a median fair value of $75.88 — 12.7% above the current price of $67.35 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DBD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DBD valuation
  • Financial statements: Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000028823) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DBD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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