Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) Fair Value 2026

PKOH · Metal Forgings & Stampings ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) trades at $36.58. QOC: 7.3/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PKOH
Price
$36.58
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +24.2% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($36.58)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $26.67 -27.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $23.29 -36.3%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
 $13.85 -62.1%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
 $45.43 +24.2%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including ML-RIV, Dynamic NAV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $30.21. Trading at $36.58, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -17.4%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $53.40 (+46.0%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $2.08 (-94.3%). This +140.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PKOH?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PKOH. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PKOH Rank in Metal Forgings & Stampings?

Among 4 Metal Forgings & Stampings stocks, PKOH ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s positioning within the Metal Forgings & Stampings segment means that organic revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including aftermarket and services growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PKOH a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for PKOH. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. earns a quality score of 7.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +140.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PKOH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PKOH's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Forgings & Stampings Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

3 related Metal Forgings & Stampings stocks with 13-model coverage

MTRNMaterion CorporationQOC 8.4MECMayville Engineering Company, IQOC 7.2TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 6.5

Read investment analysis: MTRN · MEC · TRS

Frequently Asked Questions About Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.

What is Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PKOH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $36.58, 4 of 11 active models suggest PKOH may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s business model in Metal Forgings & Stampings.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for PKOH?

Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PKOH?

CirclFi analyzes PKOH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PKOH a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for PKOH at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on PKOH.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access