Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Fair Value 2026

MO · Tobacco ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Altria Group, Inc. (MO) trades at $67.67, versus a $74.64 median fair value across its 9 active models — 10.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $99.64.

Key Facts

Ticker
MO
Price
$67.67
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +47.2% upside with 74% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Altria Group, Inc. (MO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $74.64, 10.3% above the current price of $67.67. Estimates range from $25.01 to $112.13. MO scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. MO’s +10.3% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Altria Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MO?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($67.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $99.64 +47.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $66.19 -2.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $74.64 +10.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.31 -52.3%
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What Is MO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $25.01 to $112.13

CirclFi's 9 active models place Altria Group, Inc. (MO) between $25.01 and $112.13 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $74.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MO, against a current price of $67.67.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · RCMH-DCF
$25.01median $74.64$112.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$25.01
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$112.13
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Altria Group, Inc. at $67.67. With an estimated intrinsic value of $74.64 and 5 of 9 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +10.3%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $112.13 (+65.7%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $25.01 (-63.0%). This +128.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Altria Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MO?

9 of 13 models are currently active for MO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MO is $74.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $99.64 on its own, implying +47.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MO Rank in Tobacco?

Among 16 Tobacco stocks, MO ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

Altria Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MO a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Altria Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Altria Group, Inc. scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MO's 9 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Altria Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Tobacco Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Tobacco stocks with 13-model coverage

UVVUniversal CorporationQOC 7.9BTIBritish American Tobacco p.l.c.QOC 7.6PMPhilip Morris International Inc.QOC 8.1CHUCCharlie's Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.8RLXRLX Technology Inc.QOC 8.3LIFDLFTD Partners Inc.QOC 6.8PYYXPyxus International, Inc.QOC 6.6KAVLKaival Brands Innovations Group, Inc.QOC 4.6GRLFGreen Leaf Innovations, Inc.QOC 3.6

Read investment analysis: UVV · BTI · PM · CHUC · RLX · LIFD · PYYX · KAVL · GRLF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MO?

7 companies across all industries closest to MO’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

BWLPBW LPG LimitedQOC 7.7GPCGenuine Parts CompanyQOC 7.7HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7TPGTPG Inc.QOC 7.7AESThe AES CorporationQOC 7.7PKOHPark-Ohio Holdings Corp.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BWLP · GPC · HLIO · TPG · AES · PKOH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Altria Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Altria Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Altria Group, Inc. (MO)'s intrinsic value at $74.64 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $25.01 to $112.13. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $99.64 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $67.67, 5 of 9 active models suggest MO may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $74.64, 10.3% above the current price of $67.67 — a consensus view that MO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Altria Group, Inc.'s business model in Tobacco.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for MO?

Altria Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MO?

CirclFi analyzes MO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MO?

Of the 9 models currently active on MO, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $112.13 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $25.01. CirclFi's published fair value for MO is the median of that range, $74.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MO a value trap in 2026?

Altria Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Altria Group, Inc. (MO) has a median fair value of $74.64 — 10.3% above the current price of $67.67 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MO valuation
  • Financial statements: Altria Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000764180) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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