22nd Century Group, Inc (XXII) Fair Value 2026

XXII · Cigarettes ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (41/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, 22nd Century Group, Inc (XXII) trades at $4.10, approximately 57% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $9.57. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 41/100 (WARN). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
XXII
Price
$4.10
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
41/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +383.0% upside with 40% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 41 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$9.57 +133.5%
PWERM
Medium Conviction
$19.80 +383.0%

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What Is 22nd Century Group, Inc (XXII) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, 22nd Century Group, Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $14.41. At a current market price of $4.10, 4 of 4 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +251.3%. Notably, Sentiment SOTP sees the most upside at +456.8% (fair value: $22.83), while FTNN is the most conservative at +32.0% ($5.41). The spread between these extremes — +424.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About XXII?

4 of 13 models are currently active for XXII. All 4 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates XXII's intrinsic value at $9.57, implying +133.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XXII Rank in Cigarettes?

Among 6 Cigarettes stocks, XXII ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

22nd Century Group, Inc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is XXII a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XXII a score of 41/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for 22nd Century Group, Inc. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, 22nd Century Group, Inc earns a quality score of 6.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +424.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XXII valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XXII's 4 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy 22nd Century Group, Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Cigarettes Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Cigarettes stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About 22nd Century Group, Inc

What is 22nd Century Group, Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, 22nd Century Group, Inc (XXII) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $9.57. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XXII overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.10, 4 of 4 active models suggest XXII may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits 22nd Century Group, Inc's business model in Cigarettes.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for XXII?

22nd Century Group, Inc's QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XXII?

CirclFi analyzes XXII with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is XXII a value trap in 2026?

22nd Century Group, Inc's Value Trap score is 41/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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