British American Tobacco Indus (BTI) Fair Value 2026

BTI · Cigarettes ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, British American Tobacco Indus (BTI) trades at $58.96, approximately 47% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $40.01. QOC: 2.2/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTI
Price
$58.96
Quality Score
2.2/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +41.7% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($58.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$40.01 -32.1%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$33.57 -43.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$63.64 +7.9%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$83.54 +41.7%

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What Is British American Tobacco Indus (BTI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, British American Tobacco Indus's intrinsic value is estimated at $70.02, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $58.96. With an average implied return of +18.8% across a split 5–7 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +590.2% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +495.0% (fair value: $350.82), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -95.2% ($2.83). The spread between these extremes — +590.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BTI?

13 of 13 models are currently active for BTI. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BTI's intrinsic value at $40.01, implying -32.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTI Rank in Cigarettes?

Among 6 Cigarettes stocks, BTI ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.2 signals below-average fundamentals.

British American Tobacco Indus operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BTI a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for BTI. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for British American Tobacco Indus. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, British American Tobacco Indus's fundamental quality profile registers 2.2/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +590.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTI's 13 active models, average confidence is 8%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy British American Tobacco Indus Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Cigarettes Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Cigarettes stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: RLX · PM · MO · ISPR · XXII

Frequently Asked Questions About British American Tobacco Indus

What is British American Tobacco Indus's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, British American Tobacco Indus (BTI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $40.01. The Quality of Company score is 2.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $58.96, 6 of 13 active models suggest BTI may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits British American Tobacco Indus's business model in Cigarettes.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.2 mean for BTI?

British American Tobacco Indus's QOC of 2.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTI?

CirclFi analyzes BTI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BTI a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for BTI at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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