Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) Fair Value 2026

HLIO · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) trades at $74.43, versus a $39.36 median fair value across its 11 active models — 47.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $42.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLIO
Price
$74.43
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +33.8% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $39.36, 47.1% below the current price of $74.43. Estimates range from $6.31 to $106.47. HLIO scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HLIO’s -47.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Helios Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLIO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($74.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.78 -42.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.50 -84.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $39.36 -47.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $99.62 +33.8%
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What Is HLIO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $6.31 to $106.47

CirclFi's 11 active models place Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) between $6.31 and $106.47 per share, a spread of 254% of the median. The median of that range — $39.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLIO, against a current price of $74.43.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$6.31median $39.36$106.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$6.31
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$106.47
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLIO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLIO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Helios Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $39.36. Trading at its current price of $74.43, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -47.1%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $106.47 (+43.0%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $6.31 (-91.5%). This +134.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Helios Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HLIO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HLIO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLIO is $39.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $42.78 on its own, implying -42.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLIO Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, HLIO ranks #40 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

The Specialty Industrial Machinery sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial businesses. For Helios Technologies, Inc., metrics like working capital efficiency provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is HLIO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLIO a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Helios Technologies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Helios Technologies, Inc. scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +134.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLIO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLIO's 11 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Helios Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.QOC 8.0PKOHPark-Ohio Holdings Corp.QOC 7.7NPOEnpro Inc.QOC 8.0JCSEJE Cleantech Holdings LimitedQOC 7.7OFLXOmega Flex, Inc.QOC 8.0JBTMJBT Marel CorporationQOC 7.6CETYClean Energy Technologies, Inc.QOC 5.0INLFINLIF LimitedQOC 2.7DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.QOC 8.7EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: GNRC · PKOH · NPO · JCSE · OFLX · JBTM · CETY · INLF · DCI · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLIO?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLIO’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

AESThe AES CorporationQOC 7.7BWLPBW LPG LimitedQOC 7.7SAROStandardAero, Inc.QOC 7.7MOAltria Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BTMDbiote Corp.QOC 7.7GPCGenuine Parts CompanyQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AES · BWLP · SARO · MO · BTMD · GPC · NVDA

Where Does HLIO Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

HLIO is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Helios Technologies, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Helios Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO)'s intrinsic value at $39.36 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.31 to $106.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $42.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLIO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $74.43, 2 of 11 active models suggest HLIO may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $39.36, 47.1% below the current price of $74.43 — a consensus view that HLIO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Helios Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for HLIO?

Helios Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLIO?

CirclFi analyzes HLIO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLIO?

Of the 11 models currently active on HLIO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $106.47 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $6.31. CirclFi's published fair value for HLIO is the median of that range, $39.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 254% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLIO a value trap in 2026?

Helios Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Helios Technologies, Inc. (HLIO) has a median fair value of $39.36 — 47.1% below the current price of $74.43 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLIO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLIO valuation
  • Financial statements: Helios Technologies, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001024795) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLIO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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