U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) Fair Value 2026

USPH · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) trades at $79.10, versus a $41.87 median fair value across its 12 active models — 47.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $43.21.

Key Facts

Ticker
USPH
Price
$79.10
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +82.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $41.87, 47.1% below the current price of $79.10. Estimates range from $15.70 to $144.66. USPH scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. USPH’s -47.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give USPH?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($79.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.21 -45.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.09 -75.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $40.52 -48.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $144.66 +82.9%
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What Is USPH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $15.70 to $144.66

CirclFi's 12 active models place U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) between $15.70 and $144.66 per share, a spread of 308% of the median. The median of that range — $41.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for USPH, against a current price of $79.10.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$15.70median $41.87$144.66
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$15.70
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$144.66
Model agreement1 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for USPH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on USPH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $41.87. Trading at its current price of $79.10, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -47.1%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $144.66 (+82.9%), versus ML-RIV at $15.70 (-80.2%). This +163.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About USPH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for USPH. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for USPH is $41.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $43.21 on its own, implying -45.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does USPH Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, USPH ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is USPH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns USPH a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every USPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across USPH's 12 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

ARDTArdent Health, Inc.QOC 8.2HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.9CHEChemed CorporationQOC 8.2MDPediatrix Medical Group, Inc.QOC 7.9PNTGThe Pennant Group, Inc.QOC 8.3PACSPACS Group, Inc.QOC 7.8DCGODocGo Inc.QOC 6.8EHSIElite Health Systems Inc.QOC 5.8GMRSGMR Solutions Inc.QOC 3.8ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: ARDT · HCA · CHE · MD · PNTG · PACS · DCGO · EHSI · GMRS · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to USPH?

7 companies across all industries closest to USPH’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

CATYCathay General BancorpQOC 7.9ETEnergy Transfer LPQOC 7.9MLKNMillerKnoll, Inc.QOC 7.9EEExcelerate Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9PRLBProto Labs, Inc.QOC 7.9IRENIREN LimitedQOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CATY · ET · MLKN · EE · PRLB · IREN · NVDA

Where Does USPH Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

USPH is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH)'s intrinsic value at $41.87 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $15.70 to $144.66. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $43.21 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is USPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $79.10, 1 of 12 active models suggest USPH may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $41.87, 47.1% below the current price of $79.10 — a consensus view that USPH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for USPH?

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on USPH?

CirclFi analyzes USPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on USPH?

Of the 12 models currently active on USPH, First Chicago is the most bullish at $144.66 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $15.70. CirclFi's published fair value for USPH is the median of that range, $41.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 308% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is USPH a value trap in 2026?

U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. (USPH) has a median fair value of $41.87 — 47.1% below the current price of $79.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/USPH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this USPH valuation
  • Financial statements: U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000885978) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for USPH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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