InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) Fair Value 2026

INNV · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) trades at $9.00, versus a $3.35 median fair value across its 9 active models — 62.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.77.

Key Facts

Ticker
INNV
Price
$9.00
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $3.35, 62.7% below the current price of $9.00. Estimates range from $0.13 to $12.07. INNV scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. INNV’s -62.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -27.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy InnovAge Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give INNV?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.77 -69.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $3.35 -62.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $5.06 -43.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.81 -57.7%
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What Is INNV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.13 to $12.07

CirclFi's 9 active models place InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) between $0.13 and $12.07 per share, a spread of 356% of the median. The median of that range — $3.35 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for INNV, against a current price of $9.00.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.13median $3.35$12.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.13
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$12.07
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for INNV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on INNV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, InnovAge Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.35, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $9.00. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-62.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $12.07 (+34.1%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.13 (-98.6%). This +132.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about InnovAge Holding Corp.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About INNV?

9 of 13 models are currently active for INNV. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for INNV is $3.35 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.77 on its own, implying -69.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does INNV Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, INNV ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

InnovAge Holding Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is INNV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns INNV a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for InnovAge Holding Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, InnovAge Holding Corp. is rated at 6.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every INNV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across INNV's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy InnovAge Holding Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

CYHCommunity Health Systems, Inc.QOC 7.1DCGODocGo Inc.QOC 6.8ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.QOC 7.1AMNAMN Healthcare Services, Inc.QOC 6.7LFSTLifeStance Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.1AVAHAveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.QOC 6.7EHSIElite Health Systems Inc.QOC 5.7GMRSGMR Solutions Inc.QOC 3.8USPHU.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.QOC 7.9ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: CYH · DCGO · ASTH · AMN · LFST · AVAH · EHSI · GMRS · USPH · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to INNV?

7 companies across all industries closest to INNV’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

VNOMViper Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8ALGMAllegro MicroSystems, Inc.QOC 6.8DEAEasterly Government Properties, Inc.QOC 6.8KGKestrel Group LtdQOC 6.8PAAIParadium.AI, Inc.QOC 6.8BLXBladex Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VNOM · ALGM · DEA · KG · PAAI · BLX · NVDA

Where Does INNV Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

INNV is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About InnovAge Holding Corp.’s Valuation?

What is InnovAge Holding Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV)'s intrinsic value at $3.35 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.13 to $12.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.77 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is INNV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.00, 1 of 9 active models suggest INNV may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $3.35, 62.7% below the current price of $9.00 — a consensus view that INNV is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits InnovAge Holding Corp.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for INNV?

InnovAge Holding Corp.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on INNV?

CirclFi analyzes INNV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on INNV?

Of the 9 models currently active on INNV, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $12.07 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.13. CirclFi's published fair value for INNV is the median of that range, $3.35, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 356% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is INNV a value trap in 2026?

InnovAge Holding Corp.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) has a median fair value of $3.35 — 62.7% below the current price of $9.00 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/INNV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this INNV valuation
  • Financial statements: InnovAge Holding Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001834376) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for INNV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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