Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) Fair Value 2026

AVAH · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) trades at $13.82, versus a $6.98 median fair value across its 9 active models — 49.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
AVAH
Price
$13.82
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $6.98, 49.5% below the current price of $13.82. Estimates range from $1.62 to $13.65. AVAH scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AVAH’s -49.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AVAH?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.84 -50.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.28 -47.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $13.65 -1.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.54 -74.4%
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What Is AVAH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $1.62 to $13.65

CirclFi's 9 active models place Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) between $1.62 and $13.65 per share, a spread of 172% of the median. The median of that range — $6.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AVAH, against a current price of $13.82.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$1.62median $6.98$13.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$1.62
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$13.65
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AVAH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AVAH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $6.98. Trading at its current price of $13.82, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -49.5%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $13.65 (-1.2%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $1.62 (-88.3%). This +87.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AVAH?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AVAH. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AVAH is $6.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.84 on its own, implying -50.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AVAH Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, AVAH ranks #31 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AVAH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AVAH a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +87.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AVAH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AVAH's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

CCELCryo-Cell International, Inc.QOC 6.7SRTAStrata Critical Medical, Inc.QOC 6.5INNVInnovAge Holding Corp.QOC 6.7SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc.QOC 6.4AMNAMN Healthcare Services, Inc.QOC 6.7RHEPRegional Health Properties, Inc.QOC 6.2ACHCAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc.QOC 5.6ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc.QOC 7.7NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: CCEL · SRTA · INNV · SGRY · AMN · RHEP · ACHC · ADUS · HCSG · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AVAH?

6 companies across all industries closest to AVAH’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

VRMEVerifyMe, Inc.QOC 6.7TBITrueBlue, Inc.QOC 6.7LASRnLIGHT, Inc.QOC 6.7VNOMViper Energy, Inc.QOC 6.7NAMMNamib MineralsQOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VRME · TBI · LASR · VNOM · NAMM · NVDA

Where Does AVAH Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

AVAH is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH)'s intrinsic value at $6.98 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.62 to $13.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AVAH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.82, 0 of 9 active models suggest AVAH may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $6.98, 49.5% below the current price of $13.82 — a consensus view that AVAH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for AVAH?

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AVAH?

CirclFi analyzes AVAH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AVAH?

Of the 9 models currently active on AVAH, First Chicago is the most bullish at $13.65 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $1.62. CirclFi's published fair value for AVAH is the median of that range, $6.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 172% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AVAH a value trap in 2026?

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (AVAH) has a median fair value of $6.98 — 49.5% below the current price of $13.82 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AVAH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AVAH valuation
  • Financial statements: Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001832332) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AVAH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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