BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSGU) Fair Value 2026

BTSGU · Services-Home Health Care Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSGU) trades at $230.05, approximately 2862% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.77. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTSGU
Price
$230.05
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($230.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$7.77 -96.6%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$8.12 -96.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$35.52 -84.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$68.18 -70.4%

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What Is BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSGU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BrightSpring Health Services, I's intrinsic value is estimated at $49.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $230.05. With 12 out of 12 models flagging downside (-78.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $157.27 (-31.6%), versus Bayesian DCF at $7.77 (-96.6%). This +65.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BTSGU?

12 of 13 models are currently active for BTSGU. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates BTSGU's intrinsic value at $7.77, implying -96.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTSGU Rank in Services-Home Health Care Services?

Among 5 Services-Home Health Care Services stocks, BTSGU ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

BrightSpring Health Services, I operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BTSGU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTSGU a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for BrightSpring Health Services, I. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, BrightSpring Health Services, I's fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +65.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTSGU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTSGU's 12 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BrightSpring Health Services, I Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Home Health Care Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Services-Home Health Care Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CHE · OPCH · AVAH · BTSG

Frequently Asked Questions About BrightSpring Health Services, I

What is BrightSpring Health Services, I's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BrightSpring Health Services, I (BTSGU) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.77. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTSGU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $230.05, 0 of 12 active models suggest BTSGU may be undervalued, while 12 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BrightSpring Health Services, I's business model in Services-Home Health Care Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for BTSGU?

BrightSpring Health Services, I's QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTSGU?

CirclFi analyzes BTSGU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BTSGU a value trap in 2026?

BrightSpring Health Services, I's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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