Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) Fair Value 2026

ALGM · Semiconductors ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (37/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) trades at $37.59, versus a $6.46 median fair value across its 10 active models — 82.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 37/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.94.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALGM
Price
$37.59
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
37/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $6.46, 82.8% below the current price of $37.59. Estimates range from $0.43 to $66.01. ALGM scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 37/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALGM’s -82.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Semiconductors sector median is -62.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALGM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.94 -89.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.87 -95.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $7.85 -79.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $14.65 -61.0%
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What Is ALGM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.43 to $66.01

CirclFi's 10 active models place Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) between $0.43 and $66.01 per share, a spread of 1015% of the median. The median of that range — $6.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALGM, against a current price of $37.59.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.43median $6.46$66.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.43
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$66.01
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALGM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALGM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $6.46, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $37.59. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-82.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +75.6% (fair value: $66.01), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -98.9% ($0.43). The spread between these extremes — +174.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALGM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ALGM. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALGM is $6.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.94 on its own, implying -89.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALGM Rank in Semiconductors?

Among 71 Semiconductors stocks, ALGM ranks #41 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors Stocks →

Within the Semiconductors space, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. competes in an environment where gross margin trajectory often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ALGM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALGM a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. is rated at 6.8/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +174.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALGM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALGM's 10 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Semiconductors stocks with 13-model coverage

INTCIntel CorporationQOC 6.8ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 6.7NVTSNavitas Semiconductor CorporationQOC 6.8LASRnLIGHT, Inc.QOC 6.7VSHVishay Intertechnology, Inc.QOC 6.8MXLMaxLinear, Inc.QOC 6.6MOBXMobix Labs, Inc.QOC 4.5CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 9.5ONON Semiconductor CorporationQOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: INTC · ASX · NVTS · LASR · VSH · MXL · MOBX · CRUS · ON · NVDA · AVGO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALGM?

6 companies across all industries closest to ALGM’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

DCGODocGo Inc.QOC 6.8SEVNSeven Hills Realty TrustQOC 6.8YI111, Inc.QOC 6.8DUOTDuos Technologies Group, Inc.QOC 6.8DOWDow Inc.QOC 6.8TLSTelos CorporationQOC 6.8

Read investment analysis: DCGO · SEVN · YI · DUOT · DOW · TLS

Where Does ALGM Sit in CirclFi's Semiconductors Rankings?

ALGM is ranked against every other Semiconductors stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Semiconductors stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM)'s intrinsic value at $6.46 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.43 to $66.01. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.94 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALGM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.59, 1 of 10 active models suggest ALGM may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $6.46, 82.8% below the current price of $37.59 — a consensus view that ALGM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for ALGM?

Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALGM?

CirclFi analyzes ALGM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALGM?

Of the 10 models currently active on ALGM, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $66.01 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.43. CirclFi's published fair value for ALGM is the median of that range, $6.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 1015% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALGM a value trap in 2026?

Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 37/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) has a median fair value of $6.46 — 82.8% below the current price of $37.59 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALGM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALGM valuation
  • Financial statements: Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000866291) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALGM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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