Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) Fair Value 2026

OMDA · Health Information Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) trades at $24.27, versus a $6.54 median fair value across its 7 active models — 73.0% below the current price. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.90.

Key Facts

Ticker
OMDA
Price
$24.27
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $6.54, 73.0% below the current price of $24.27. Estimates range from $0.76 to $24.47. OMDA scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OMDA’s -73.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Health Information Services sector median is +4.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Omada Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OMDA?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.27)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.90 -71.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.51 -73.2%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $0.95 -96.1%
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What Is OMDA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.76 to $24.47

CirclFi's 7 active models place Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) between $0.76 and $24.47 per share, a spread of 362% of the median. The median of that range — $6.54 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OMDA, against a current price of $24.27.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.76median $6.54$24.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.76
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$24.47
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OMDA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OMDA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Omada Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $6.54, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $24.27. With 6 out of 7 models flagging downside (-73.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +0.8% (fair value: $24.47), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -96.9% ($0.76). The spread between these extremes — +97.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About OMDA?

7 of 13 models are currently active for OMDA. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OMDA is $6.54 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.90 on its own, implying -71.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OMDA Rank in Health Information Services?

Among 55 Health Information Services stocks, OMDA ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Health Information Services Stocks →

Omada Health, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OMDA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OMDA a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Omada Health, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Omada Health, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +97.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OMDA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OMDA's 7 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Omada Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Health Information Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Health Information Services stocks with 13-model coverage

SOPHSOPHiA GENETICS SAQOC 5.9EVHEvolent Health, Inc.QOC 5.8PBSVPharma-Bio Serv, Inc.QOC 5.9AMWLAmerican Well CorporationQOC 5.8DRIODarioHealth Corp.QOC 6.0CTEVClaritev CorporationQOC 5.6RVRCRevium Rx.QOC 4.5CCLDCareCloud, Inc.QOC 8.4DHDefinitive Healthcare Corp.QOC 7.0DOCSDoximity, Inc.QOC 9.6HQYHealthEquity, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: SOPH · EVH · PBSV · AMWL · DRIO · CTEV · RVRC · CCLD · DH · DOCS · HQY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OMDA?

6 companies across all industries closest to OMDA’s Quality of Company score of 5.8/10.

RGNXREGENXBIO Inc.QOC 5.8INVUInvestview, Inc.QOC 5.8BGDEBig Digital Energy, Inc.QOC 5.8PLBYPlayboy, Inc.QOC 5.8ATCHAtlasClear Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RGNX · INVU · BGDE · PLBY · ATCH · NVDA

Where Does OMDA Sit in CirclFi's Health Information Services Rankings?

OMDA is ranked against every other Health Information Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Health Information Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Omada Health, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Omada Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA)'s intrinsic value at $6.54 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.76 to $24.47. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.90 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OMDA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.27, 1 of 7 active models suggest OMDA may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $6.54, 73.0% below the current price of $24.27 — a consensus view that OMDA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Omada Health, Inc.'s business model in Health Information Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for OMDA?

Omada Health, Inc.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OMDA?

CirclFi analyzes OMDA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OMDA?

Of the 7 models currently active on OMDA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $24.47 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.76. CirclFi's published fair value for OMDA is the median of that range, $6.54, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 362% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OMDA a value trap in 2026?

Omada Health, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Omada Health, Inc. (OMDA) has a median fair value of $6.54 — 73.0% below the current price of $24.27 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OMDA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OMDA valuation
  • Financial statements: Omada Health, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001611115) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OMDA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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