American Well Corporation (AMWL) Fair Value 2026

AMWL · Health Information Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, American Well Corporation (AMWL) trades at $11.05, approximately 34% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $8.24. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AMWL
Price
$11.05
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +210.2% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is American Well Corporation (AMWL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, American Well Corporation (AMWL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $20.42, 84.8% above the current price of $11.05. Estimates range from $4.14 to $43.21. AMWL scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy American Well Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $8.24 -25.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $34.30 +210.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $6.65 -39.8%
Dynamic NAV
High Conviction
 $20.83 +88.4%

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What Is American Well Corporation (AMWL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American Well Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $21.05, suggesting a +90.4% average upside from the current price of $11.06. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: EROIC targets $43.21 (+290.9%), versus ML-RIV at $4.14 (-62.5%). This +353.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AMWL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AMWL. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AMWL's intrinsic value at $8.24, implying -25.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AMWL Rank in Health Information Services?

Among 2 Health Information Services stocks, AMWL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

American Well Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AMWL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AMWL a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for American Well Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, American Well Corporation is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +353.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AMWL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AMWL's 10 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American Well Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Health Information Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Health Information Services stocks with 13-model coverage

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Read investment analysis: ACON

Frequently Asked Questions About American Well Corporation

What is American Well Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, American Well Corporation (AMWL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $8.24. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AMWL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.05, 6 of 10 active models suggest AMWL may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $20.42, 84.8% above the current price of $11.05 — a consensus view that AMWL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American Well Corporation's business model in Health Information Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for AMWL?

American Well Corporation's QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AMWL?

CirclFi analyzes AMWL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AMWL a value trap in 2026?

American Well Corporation's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, American Well Corporation (AMWL) has a median fair value of $20.42 — 84.8% above the current price of $11.05 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AMWL/ · Methodology

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