Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN) Fair Value 2026

LUMN · Telecom Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN) trades at $5.91, versus a $2.71 median fair value across its 3 active models — 54.2% below the current price. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LUMN
Price
$5.91
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +209.0% upside with 35% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $2.71, 54.2% below the current price of $5.91. Estimates range from $1.56 to $18.25. LUMN scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. LUMN’s -54.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Telecom Services sector median is +39.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LUMN?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.71 -54.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.56 -73.6%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $18.25 +209.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is LUMN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $1.56 to $18.25

CirclFi's 3 active models place Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN) between $1.56 and $18.25 per share, a spread of 617% of the median. The median of that range — $2.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LUMN, against a current price of $5.91.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · PWERM
$1.56median $2.71$18.25
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$1.56
Most bullish modelPWERM$18.25
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LUMN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LUMN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $2.71. Trading at $5.91, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -54.2%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +209.0% (fair value: $18.25), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -73.6% ($1.56). The spread between these extremes — +282.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LUMN?

3 of 13 models are currently active for LUMN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LUMN is $2.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LUMN Rank in Telecom Services?

Among 55 Telecom Services stocks, LUMN ranks #42 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Telecom Services Stocks →

The Telecom Services sector introduces analytical considerations specific to telecom operator businesses. For Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock, metrics like fiber/5G penetration provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is LUMN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LUMN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock scores 5.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +282.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LUMN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LUMN's 3 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Telecom Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Telecom Services stocks with 13-model coverage

CCOICogent Communications Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8TVGrupo Televisa, S.A.B.QOC 5.7FNGRFingerMotion, Inc.QOC 5.8KTELKonaTel, Inc.QOC 5.6NUVRNuvera Communications, Inc.QOC 5.9NIXXNixxy, Inc.QOC 5.4VEONVEON Ltd.QOC 2.6VZVerizon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7KVHIKVH Industries, Inc.QOC 6.6IDTIDT CorporationQOC 8.7IRDMIridium Communications Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: CCOI · TV · FNGR · KTEL · NUVR · NIXX · VEON · VZ · KVHI · IDT · IRDM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LUMN?

7 companies across all industries closest to LUMN’s Quality of Company score of 5.8/10.

BLNDBlend Labs, Inc.QOC 5.8QRHCQuest Resource Holding CorporationQOC 5.8LBRA1847 Holdings, LLCQOC 5.8MCHXMarchex, Inc.QOC 5.8AMWLAmerican Well CorporationQOC 5.8FOCLEDAP TMS S.A.QOC 5.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLND · QRHC · LBRA · MCHX · AMWL · FOCL · NVDA

Where Does LUMN Sit in CirclFi's Telecom Services Rankings?

LUMN is ranked against every other Telecom Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Telecom Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock’s Valuation?

What is Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN)'s intrinsic value at $2.71 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.56 to $18.25. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LUMN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.91, 1 of 3 active models suggest LUMN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $2.71, 54.2% below the current price of $5.91 — a consensus view that LUMN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock's business model in Telecom Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for LUMN?

Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock's QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LUMN?

CirclFi analyzes LUMN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LUMN?

Of the 3 models currently active on LUMN, PWERM is the most bullish at $18.25 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $1.56. CirclFi's published fair value for LUMN is the median of that range, $2.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 617% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LUMN a value trap in 2026?

Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Lumen Technologies, Inc. Common Stock (LUMN) has a median fair value of $2.71 — 54.2% below the current price of $5.91 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LUMN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LUMN valuation

Market data for LUMN as of ; valuations recomputed .