Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) Fair Value 2026

PRVA · Health Information Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) trades at $20.86, versus a $15.92 median fair value across its 9 active models — 23.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $31.47.

Key Facts

Ticker
PRVA
Price
$20.86
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +50.9% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $15.92, 23.7% below the current price of $20.86. Estimates range from $0.23 to $46.79. PRVA scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PRVA’s -23.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Health Information Services sector median is +4.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Privia Health Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PRVA?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.47 +50.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.92 -23.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $10.18 -51.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.09 -75.6%
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What Is PRVA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.23 to $46.79

CirclFi's 9 active models place Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) between $0.23 and $46.79 per share, a spread of 293% of the median. The median of that range — $15.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PRVA, against a current price of $20.86.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.23median $15.92$46.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.23
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$46.79
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PRVA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PRVA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Privia Health Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.92, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $20.86. With 7 out of 9 models flagging downside (-23.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +124.3% (fair value: $46.79), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -98.9% ($0.23). The spread between these extremes — +223.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About PRVA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for PRVA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PRVA is $15.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $31.47 on its own, implying +50.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PRVA Rank in Health Information Services?

Among 55 Health Information Services stocks, PRVA ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Health Information Services Stocks →

Privia Health Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PRVA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PRVA a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Privia Health Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Privia Health Group, Inc. is rated at 7.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +223.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PRVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PRVA's 9 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Privia Health Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Health Information Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Health Information Services stocks with 13-model coverage

GDRXGoodRx Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1WAYWaystar Holding Corp.QOC 7.7OPRXOptimizeRx CorporationQOC 8.3TXG10x Genomics, Inc.QOC 7.6CCLDCareCloud, Inc.QOC 8.4CERTCertara, Inc.QOC 7.6WEAVWeave Communications, Inc.QOC 6.6AMWLAmerican Well CorporationQOC 5.8DOGPDogecoin Cash, Inc.QOC 4.0DOCSDoximity, Inc.QOC 9.6HQYHealthEquity, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: GDRX · WAY · OPRX · TXG · CCLD · CERT · WEAV · AMWL · DOGP · DOCS · HQY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PRVA?

7 companies across all industries closest to PRVA’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

THFFFirst Financial CorporationQOC 7.9JILLJ.Jill, Inc.QOC 7.9FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc.QOC 7.9MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.QOC 7.9DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.QOC 7.9SFDSmithfield Foods, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: THFF · JILL · FG · MSM · DLTR · SFD · NVDA

Where Does PRVA Sit in CirclFi's Health Information Services Rankings?

PRVA is ranked against every other Health Information Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Health Information Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Privia Health Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Privia Health Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA)'s intrinsic value at $15.92 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.23 to $46.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $31.47 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PRVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.86, 2 of 9 active models suggest PRVA may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $15.92, 23.7% below the current price of $20.86 — a consensus view that PRVA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Privia Health Group, Inc.'s business model in Health Information Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for PRVA?

Privia Health Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PRVA?

CirclFi analyzes PRVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PRVA?

Of the 9 models currently active on PRVA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $46.79 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.23. CirclFi's published fair value for PRVA is the median of that range, $15.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 293% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PRVA a value trap in 2026?

Privia Health Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Privia Health Group, Inc. (PRVA) has a median fair value of $15.92 — 23.7% below the current price of $20.86 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PRVA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PRVA valuation
  • Financial statements: Privia Health Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001759655) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PRVA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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