Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) Fair Value 2026

HNGE · Health Information Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) trades at $87.35, versus a $47.43 median fair value across its 5 active models — 45.7% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $32.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
HNGE
Price
$87.35
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $47.43, 45.7% below the current price of $87.35. Estimates range from $14.16 to $137.70. HNGE scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HNGE’s -45.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Health Information Services sector median is +4.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hinge Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HNGE?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($87.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.84 -62.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $47.43 -45.7%
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What Is HNGE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $14.16 to $137.70

CirclFi's 5 active models place Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) between $14.16 and $137.70 per share, a spread of 260% of the median. The median of that range — $47.43 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HNGE, against a current price of $87.35.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$14.16median $47.43$137.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$14.16
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$137.70
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HNGE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HNGE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hinge Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $47.43. Trading at its current price of $87.35, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 4 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -45.7%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $137.70 (+57.6%), versus RCMH-DCF at $14.16 (-83.8%). This +141.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HNGE?

5 of 13 models are currently active for HNGE. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HNGE is $47.43 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $32.84 on its own, implying -62.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HNGE Rank in Health Information Services?

Among 55 Health Information Services stocks, HNGE ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Health Information Services Stocks →

Hinge Health, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HNGE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HNGE a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Hinge Health, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hinge Health, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +141.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HNGE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HNGE's 5 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hinge Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Health Information Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Health Information Services stocks with 13-model coverage

TEMTempus AI, Inc.QOC 6.4HCATHealth Catalyst, Inc.QOC 6.3SYSo-Young International Inc.QOC 6.5CARLCarlsmed, Inc.QOC 6.3WEAVWeave Communications, Inc.QOC 6.6BFRGBullfrog AI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2ACONAclarion, Inc.QOC 5.1MNDRMobile-health Network SolutionsQOC 2.6TXG10x Genomics, Inc.QOC 7.6DOCSDoximity, Inc.QOC 9.6HQYHealthEquity, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: TEM · HCAT · SY · CARL · WEAV · BFRG · ACON · MNDR · TXG · DOCS · HQY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HNGE?

6 companies across all industries closest to HNGE’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

MGNMegan Holdings LimitedQOC 6.4HTCRHeartCore Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.4DEIDouglas Emmett, Inc.QOC 6.4BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp.QOC 6.4HRHealthcare Realty Trust IncorporatedQOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MGN · HTCR · DEI · BIOX · HR · NVDA

Where Does HNGE Sit in CirclFi's Health Information Services Rankings?

HNGE is ranked against every other Health Information Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Health Information Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hinge Health, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Hinge Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE)'s intrinsic value at $47.43 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.16 to $137.70. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $32.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HNGE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $87.35, 1 of 5 active models suggest HNGE may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $47.43, 45.7% below the current price of $87.35 — a consensus view that HNGE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hinge Health, Inc.'s business model in Health Information Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for HNGE?

Hinge Health, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HNGE?

CirclFi analyzes HNGE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HNGE?

Of the 5 models currently active on HNGE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $137.70 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $14.16. CirclFi's published fair value for HNGE is the median of that range, $47.43, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 260% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HNGE a value trap in 2026?

Hinge Health, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Hinge Health, Inc. (HNGE) has a median fair value of $47.43 — 45.7% below the current price of $87.35 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HNGE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HNGE valuation
  • Financial statements: Hinge Health, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001673743) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HNGE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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