TriMas Corporation (TRS) Fair Value 2026

TRS · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (2/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, TriMas Corporation (TRS) trades at $39.58, versus a $43.46 median fair value across its 13 active models — 9.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 2/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $57.05.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRS
Price
$39.58
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
2/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +127.7% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is TriMas Corporation (TRS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, TriMas Corporation (TRS) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $43.46, within 9.8% of the current price of $39.58. Estimates range from $22.12 to $90.14. TRS scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 2/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TRS’s +9.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -15.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TriMas Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TRS?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($39.58)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $57.05 +44.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.55 -17.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $42.31 +6.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $90.14 +127.7%
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What Is TRS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $22.12 to $90.14

CirclFi's 13 active models place TriMas Corporation (TRS) between $22.12 and $90.14 per share, a spread of 157% of the median. The median of that range — $43.46 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TRS, against a current price of $39.58.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$22.12median $43.46$90.14
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$22.12
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$90.14
Model agreement8 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TRS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TRS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TriMas Corporation (TRS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on TriMas Corporation at $39.58. With an estimated intrinsic value of $43.46 and 8 of 13 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +9.8%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $90.14 (+127.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $22.12 (-44.1%). This +171.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TriMas Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TRS?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TRS. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TRS is $43.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $57.05 on its own, implying +44.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRS Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, TRS ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places TRS in the top tier.

TriMas Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TRS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TRS a score of 2/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for TriMas Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, TriMas Corporation is rated at 8.0/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +171.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRS's 13 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TriMas Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2BALLBall CorporationQOC 7.9GEFGreif, Inc.QOC 8.3CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9SONSonoco Products CompanyQOC 8.3MYEMyers Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8AMCRAmcor plcQOC 7.8IPInternational Paper CompanyQOC 6.5MGIHMillennium Group International Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: GPK · BALL · GEF · CCK · SON · MYE · AMCR · IP · MGIH · KRT · PKG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TRS?

7 companies across all industries closest to TRS’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc.QOC 8.0TRIPTripadvisor, Inc.QOC 8.0SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.QOC 8.0SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.QOC 8.0UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.0PHINPHINIA Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FEDU · TRIP · SITE · SWBI · UBSI · PHIN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About TriMas Corporation’s Valuation?

What is TriMas Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TriMas Corporation (TRS)'s intrinsic value at $43.46 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $22.12 to $90.14. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $57.05 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $39.58, 8 of 13 active models suggest TRS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $43.46, within 9.8% of the current price of $39.58 — a consensus view that TRS is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TriMas Corporation's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for TRS?

TriMas Corporation's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRS?

CirclFi analyzes TRS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TRS?

Of the 13 models currently active on TRS, First Chicago is the most bullish at $90.14 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $22.12. CirclFi's published fair value for TRS is the median of that range, $43.46, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 157% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TRS a value trap in 2026?

TriMas Corporation's Value Trap score is 2/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, TriMas Corporation (TRS) has a median fair value of $43.46 — within 9.8% of the current price of $39.58 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TRS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TRS valuation
  • Financial statements: TriMas Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000842633) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TRS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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