Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Fair Value 2026

NMRK · Real Estate Agents & Managers (For Others) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (50/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) trades at $15.09, approximately 51% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $10.01. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 50/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NMRK
Price
$15.09
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
50/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +31.7% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 50 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$10.01 -33.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$13.06 -13.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$12.37 -18.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$19.88 +31.7%

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What Is Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Newmark Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.95. Trading at its current price of $15.09, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -27.4%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $19.88 (+31.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $1.10 (-92.7%). This +124.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Newmark Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NMRK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NMRK. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NMRK's intrinsic value at $10.01, implying -33.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NMRK Rank in Real Estate Agents & Managers (For Others)?

Among 18 Real Estate Agents & Managers (For Others) stocks, NMRK ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

Newmark Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Real Estate Agents & Managers (For Others) segment means that capitalization rate (cap rate) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including demographic-driven demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NMRK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NMRK a score of 50/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Newmark Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Newmark Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +124.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NMRK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NMRK's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Newmark Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Agents & Managers (For Others) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Agents & Managers (For Others) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: LHAI · BEKE · JLL · REAX · MMI

Frequently Asked Questions About Newmark Group, Inc.

What is Newmark Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $10.01. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NMRK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.09, 2 of 12 active models suggest NMRK may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Newmark Group, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Agents & Managers (For Others).

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for NMRK?

Newmark Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NMRK?

CirclFi analyzes NMRK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NMRK a value trap in 2026?

Newmark Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 50/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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