Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Fair Value 2026

NTRS · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) trades at $169.46, versus a $101.78 median fair value across its 6 active models — 39.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NTRS
Price
$169.46
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $101.78, 39.9% below the current price of $169.46. Estimates range from $66.71 to $126.58. NTRS scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NTRS’s -39.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is +3.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Northern Trust Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NTRS?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($169.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $66.71 -60.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $98.17 -42.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $99.43 -41.3%
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What Is NTRS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $66.71 to $126.58

CirclFi's 6 active models place Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) between $66.71 and $126.58 per share, a spread of 59% of the median. The median of that range — $101.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NTRS, against a current price of $169.46.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$66.71median $101.78$126.58
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$66.71
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$126.58
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NTRS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Northern Trust Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $101.78, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $169.46. With 6 out of 6 models flagging downside (-39.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $126.58 (-25.3%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $66.71 (-60.6%). This +35.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Northern Trust Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NTRS?

6 of 13 models are currently active for NTRS. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NTRS is $101.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NTRS Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, NTRS ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Northern Trust Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NTRS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NTRS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Northern Trust Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Northern Trust Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +35.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NTRS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NTRS's 6 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Northern Trust Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.QOC 7.7STTState Street CorporationQOC 7.6BCGBinah Capital Group, Inc.QOC 7.7BENFranklin Templeton Inc.QOC 7.6TPGTPG Inc.QOC 7.7AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.QOC 7.6TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.QOC 6.1GUTThe Gabelli Utility TrustQOC 4.8BCXBlackrock Resources & Commodities Strategy TrustQOC 2.3HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: VRTS · STT · BCG · BEN · TPG · AAMI · TPVG · GUT · BCX · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NTRS?

7 companies across all industries closest to NTRS’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6TRVGtrivago N.V.QOC 7.6CHMGChemung Financial CorporationQOC 7.6ABBVAbbVie Inc.QOC 7.6TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7FORForestar Group Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MAA · TRVG · CHMG · ABBV · TTI · FOR · NVDA

Where Does NTRS Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

NTRS is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Northern Trust Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Northern Trust Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)'s intrinsic value at $101.78 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $66.71 to $126.58. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NTRS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $169.46, 0 of 6 active models suggest NTRS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $101.78, 39.9% below the current price of $169.46 — a consensus view that NTRS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Northern Trust Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for NTRS?

Northern Trust Corporation's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NTRS?

CirclFi analyzes NTRS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NTRS?

Of the 6 models currently active on NTRS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $126.58 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $66.71. CirclFi's published fair value for NTRS is the median of that range, $101.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 59% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NTRS a value trap in 2026?

Northern Trust Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) has a median fair value of $101.78 — 39.9% below the current price of $169.46 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NTRS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NTRS valuation
  • Financial statements: Northern Trust Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000073124) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NTRS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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