Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Fair Value 2026

MAA · REIT - Residential ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) trades at $116.99, versus a $70.00 median fair value across its 8 active models — 40.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MAA
Price
$116.99
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $70.00, 40.2% below the current price of $116.99. Estimates range from $6.63 to $111.76. MAA scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MAA’s -40.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Residential sector median is -29.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MAA?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($116.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.63 -94.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $69.43 -40.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $111.76 -4.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.53 -75.6%
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What Is MAA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $6.63 to $111.76

CirclFi's 8 active models place Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) between $6.63 and $111.76 per share, a spread of 150% of the median. The median of that range — $70.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MAA, against a current price of $116.99.

Low · EPVHigh · Markov DDM
$6.63median $70.00$111.76
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$6.63
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$111.76
Model agreement0 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MAA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MAA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $70.00, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $116.99. With 7 out of 8 models flagging downside (-40.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $111.76 (-4.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $6.63 (-94.3%). This +89.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MAA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for MAA. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MAA is $70.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MAA Rank in REIT - Residential?

Among 20 REIT - Residential stocks, MAA ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

As a real estate sector, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. operates in a sector where debt-to-EBITDA is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MAA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MAA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MAA a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +89.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MAA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MAA's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Residential Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related REIT - Residential stocks with 13-model coverage

CSRCenterspaceQOC 7.7SUISun Communities, Inc.QOC 7.6ESSEssex Property Trust, Inc.QOC 7.9CPTCamden Property TrustQOC 7.4IRTIndependence Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.0MRPMillrose Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2AMHAmerican Homes 4 RentQOC 7.0CLPRClipper Realty Inc.QOC 5.6UDRUDR, Inc.QOC 8.3INVHInvitation Homes Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: CSR · SUI · ESS · CPT · IRT · MRP · AMH · CLPR · UDR · INVH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MAA?

7 companies across all industries closest to MAA’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

CHMGChemung Financial CorporationQOC 7.6NTRSNorthern Trust CorporationQOC 7.6TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7TRVGtrivago N.V.QOC 7.6JBTMJBT Marel CorporationQOC 7.7ABBVAbbVie Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CHMG · NTRS · TTI · TRVG · JBTM · ABBV · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA)'s intrinsic value at $70.00 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $6.63 to $111.76. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MAA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $116.99, 0 of 8 active models suggest MAA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $70.00, 40.2% below the current price of $116.99 — a consensus view that MAA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Residential.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for MAA?

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MAA?

CirclFi analyzes MAA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MAA?

Of the 8 models currently active on MAA, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $111.76 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $6.63. CirclFi's published fair value for MAA is the median of that range, $70.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 150% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MAA a value trap in 2026?

Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) has a median fair value of $70.00 — 40.2% below the current price of $116.99 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MAA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MAA valuation

Market data for MAA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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