State Street Corporation (STT) Fair Value 2026

STT · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, State Street Corporation (STT) trades at $193.33, versus a $81.91 median fair value across its 6 active models — 57.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STT
Price
$193.33
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is State Street Corporation (STT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, State Street Corporation (STT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $81.91, 57.6% below the current price of $193.33. Estimates range from $71.23 to $241.92. STT scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. STT’s -57.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy State Street Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give STT?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($193.33)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $72.31 -62.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $85.88 -55.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.23 -63.2%
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What Is STT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $71.23 to $241.92

CirclFi's 6 active models place State Street Corporation (STT) between $71.23 and $241.92 per share, a spread of 208% of the median. The median of that range — $81.91 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for STT, against a current price of $193.33.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$71.23median $81.91$241.92
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$71.23
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$241.92
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for STT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on STT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is State Street Corporation (STT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, State Street Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $81.91, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $193.33. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-57.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $241.92 (+25.1%), versus Markov DDM at $71.23 (-63.2%). This +88.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About STT?

6 of 13 models are currently active for STT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for STT is $81.91 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STT Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, STT ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

State Street Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is STT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STT a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for State Street Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, State Street Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +88.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STT's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy State Street Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

NTRSNorthern Trust CorporationQOC 7.6BENFranklin Templeton Inc.QOC 7.6VRTSVirtus Investment Partners, Inc.QOC 7.7AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.QOC 7.6BCGBinah Capital Group, Inc.QOC 7.7ABAllianceBernstein Holding L.P.QOC 7.5RWAYRunway Growth Finance Corp.QOC 6.1HQHAbrdn Healthcare InvestorsQOC 4.9GGZThe Gabelli Global Small and Mid Cap Value TrustQOC 2.3HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: NTRS · BEN · VRTS · AAMI · BCG · AB · RWAY · HQH · GGZ · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to STT?

7 companies across all industries closest to STT’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

TRNTrinity Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6ULUnilever PLCQOC 7.6TFIITFI International Inc.QOC 7.6LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6ESABESAB CorporationQOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TRN · UL · TFII · LOCO · BIPC · ESAB · NVDA

Where Does STT Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

STT is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About State Street Corporation’s Valuation?

What is State Street Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts State Street Corporation (STT)'s intrinsic value at $81.91 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $71.23 to $241.92. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $193.33, 1 of 6 active models suggest STT may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $81.91, 57.6% below the current price of $193.33 — a consensus view that STT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits State Street Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for STT?

State Street Corporation's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STT?

CirclFi analyzes STT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on STT?

Of the 6 models currently active on STT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $241.92 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $71.23. CirclFi's published fair value for STT is the median of that range, $81.91, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 208% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is STT a value trap in 2026?

State Street Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, State Street Corporation (STT) has a median fair value of $81.91 — 57.6% below the current price of $193.33 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/STT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this STT valuation
  • Financial statements: State Street Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000093751) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for STT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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