Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) Fair Value 2026

SRG · Real Estate ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (38/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) trades at $2.63, approximately 135% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.12. QOC: 5.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 38/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SRG
Price
$2.63
Quality Score
5.0/10
Value Trap Risk
38/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Dynamic NAV suggests +15.5% upside with 43% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 5.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $2.07, 21.3% below the current price of $2.63. Estimates range from $0.76 to $3.23. SRG scores 5.0/10 on fundamental quality and 38/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Seritage Growth Properties Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $1.12 -57.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $2.07 -21.3%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $1.34 -49.3%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
 $3.04 +15.5%

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What Is Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Seritage Growth Properties's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $1.94. Trading at $2.64, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -26.5%), as 5 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $3.23 (+22.6%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.76 (-71.1%). This +93.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SRG?

9 of 13 models are currently active for SRG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SRG's intrinsic value at $1.12, implying -57.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SRG Rank in Real Estate?

Among 32 Real Estate stocks, SRG ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Stocks →

The Real Estate sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate investment trust businesses. For Seritage Growth Properties, metrics like same-property NOI growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SRG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SRG a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Seritage Growth Properties. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Seritage Growth Properties earns a quality score of 5.0/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +93.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SRG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SRG's 9 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Seritage Growth Properties Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate stocks with 13-model coverage

CHCIComstock Holding Companies, IncQOC 9.6FSVFirstService CorporationQOC 8.8FPHFive Point Holdings, LLCQOC 8.7VTMXCorporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta,QOC 8.7IIPRInnovative Industrial PropertieQOC 8.5EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.4CWKCushman & Wakefield Ltd.QOC 8.3CURBCurbline Properties Corp.QOC 8.1

Read investment analysis: CHCI · FSV · FPH · VTMX · IIPR

See all Real Estate stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Seritage Growth Properties

What is Seritage Growth Properties's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.12. The Quality of Company score is 5.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SRG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.63, 2 of 9 active models suggest SRG may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $2.07, 21.3% below the current price of $2.63 — a consensus view that SRG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Seritage Growth Properties's business model in Real Estate.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.0 mean for SRG?

Seritage Growth Properties's QOC of 5.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SRG?

CirclFi analyzes SRG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SRG a value trap in 2026?

Seritage Growth Properties's Value Trap score is 38/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Seritage Growth Properties (SRG) has a median fair value of $2.07 — 21.3% below the current price of $2.63 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SRG/ · Methodology

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