Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) Fair Value 2026

CTRN · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (7/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) trades at $67.25, versus a $23.33 median fair value across its 9 active models — 65.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 7/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CTRN
Price
$67.25
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
7/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $23.33, 65.3% below the current price of $67.25. Estimates range from $4.61 to $58.47. CTRN scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 7/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CTRN’s -65.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is +3.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Citi Trends, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CTRN?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($67.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.14 -83.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.33 -65.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $58.47 -13.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.61 -93.1%
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What Is CTRN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $4.61 to $58.47

CirclFi's 9 active models place Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) between $4.61 and $58.47 per share, a spread of 231% of the median. The median of that range — $23.33 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CTRN, against a current price of $67.25.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$4.61median $23.33$58.47
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$4.61
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$58.47
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CTRN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CTRN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Citi Trends, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.33, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $67.25. With 9 out of 9 models flagging downside (-65.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $58.47 (-13.1%), versus EROIC at $4.61 (-93.1%). This +80.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CTRN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for CTRN. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CTRN is $23.33 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CTRN Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 35 Apparel Retail stocks, CTRN ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Apparel Retail space, Citi Trends, Inc. competes in an environment where customer lifetime value (CLV) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CTRN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CTRN a score of 7/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Citi Trends, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Citi Trends, Inc. is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +80.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CTRN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CTRN's 9 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Citi Trends, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

CRICarter's, Inc.QOC 7.6ZUMZZumiez Inc.QOC 7.2GCOGenesco Inc.QOC 7.6CALCaleres, Inc.QOC 7.0LELands' End, Inc.QOC 7.7BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0CURVTorrid Holdings Inc.QOC 6.0FBCDFBC Holding, Inc.QOC 3.3GAPThe Gap, Inc.QOC 8.4BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CRI · ZUMZ · GCO · CAL · LE · BRIA · CURV · FBCD · GAP · BKE · ANF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CTRN?

7 companies across all industries closest to CTRN’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

WALWestern Alliance BancorporationQOC 7.2PROVProvident Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2CBLCBL & Associates Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2EHTHeHealth, Inc.QOC 7.2MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.QOC 7.2NRGNRG Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WAL · PROV · CBL · EHTH · MTX · NRG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Citi Trends, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Citi Trends, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN)'s intrinsic value at $23.33 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.61 to $58.47. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CTRN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $67.25, 0 of 9 active models suggest CTRN may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $23.33, 65.3% below the current price of $67.25 — a consensus view that CTRN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Citi Trends, Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for CTRN?

Citi Trends, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CTRN?

CirclFi analyzes CTRN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CTRN?

Of the 9 models currently active on CTRN, First Chicago is the most bullish at $58.47 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $4.61. CirclFi's published fair value for CTRN is the median of that range, $23.33, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 231% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CTRN a value trap in 2026?

Citi Trends, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 7/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Citi Trends, Inc. (CTRN) has a median fair value of $23.33 — 65.3% below the current price of $67.25 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CTRN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CTRN valuation
  • Financial statements: Citi Trends, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001318484) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CTRN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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