Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) Fair Value 2026

ZUMZ · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) trades at $18.18, versus a $17.60 median fair value across its 13 active models — 3.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $25.80.

Key Facts

Ticker
ZUMZ
Price
$18.18
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +236.7% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $17.60, within 3.2% of the current price of $18.18. Estimates range from $3.98 to $61.20. ZUMZ scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ZUMZ’s -3.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is +3.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Zumiez Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ZUMZ?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.80 +41.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.51 -42.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.60 -3.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $61.20 +236.7%
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What Is ZUMZ's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $3.98 to $61.20

CirclFi's 13 active models place Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) between $3.98 and $61.20 per share, a spread of 325% of the median. The median of that range — $17.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ZUMZ, against a current price of $18.18.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$3.98median $17.60$61.20
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.98
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$61.20
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ZUMZ. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ZUMZ, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Zumiez Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $17.60, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $18.18. While the median implied return is -3.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +314.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $61.20 (+236.7%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.98 (-78.1%). This +314.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Zumiez Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ZUMZ?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ZUMZ. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ZUMZ is $17.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $25.80 on its own, implying +41.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ZUMZ Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 35 Apparel Retail stocks, ZUMZ ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Zumiez Inc.'s positioning within the Apparel Retail segment means that same-store sales growth (comps) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ZUMZ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ZUMZ a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Zumiez Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Zumiez Inc. earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +314.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ZUMZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ZUMZ's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Zumiez Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

CTRNCiti Trends, Inc.QOC 7.2CALCaleres, Inc.QOC 7.0CRICarter's, Inc.QOC 7.6BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0GCOGenesco Inc.QOC 7.6DLTHDuluth Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4AKAa.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.QOC 5.9BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2JILLJ.Jill, Inc.QOC 7.9ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CTRN · CAL · CRI · BRIA · GCO · DLTH · AKA · BKE · JILL · ANF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ZUMZ?

7 companies across all industries closest to ZUMZ’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

ACRACRES Commercial Realty Corp.QOC 7.2ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 7.2NXSTNexstar Media Group, Inc.QOC 7.2OCOwens CorningQOC 7.2YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2FFord Motor CompanyQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ACR · ARVN · NXST · OC · YORW · F · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Zumiez Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Zumiez Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ)'s intrinsic value at $17.60 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.98 to $61.20. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $25.80 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ZUMZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.18, 6 of 13 active models suggest ZUMZ may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $17.60, within 3.2% of the current price of $18.18 — a consensus view that ZUMZ is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Zumiez Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for ZUMZ?

Zumiez Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ZUMZ?

CirclFi analyzes ZUMZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ZUMZ?

Of the 13 models currently active on ZUMZ, First Chicago is the most bullish at $61.20 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.98. CirclFi's published fair value for ZUMZ is the median of that range, $17.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 325% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ZUMZ a value trap in 2026?

Zumiez Inc.'s Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Zumiez Inc. (ZUMZ) has a median fair value of $17.60 — within 3.2% of the current price of $18.18 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ZUMZ/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ZUMZ valuation
  • Financial statements: Zumiez Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001318008) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ZUMZ as of ; valuations recomputed .

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