Carter's, Inc. (CRI) Fair Value 2026

CRI · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (38/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Carter's, Inc. (CRI) trades at $33.55, versus a $48.01 median fair value across its 12 active models — 43.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 38/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $28.03.

Key Facts

Ticker
CRI
Price
$33.55
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
38/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +114.2% upside with 82% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Carter's, Inc. (CRI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Carter's, Inc. (CRI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $48.01, 43.1% above the current price of $33.55. Estimates range from $3.23 to $71.87. CRI scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 38/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CRI’s +43.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is +3.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Carter's, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CRI?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.03 -16.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.87 +114.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $44.97 +34.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.93 -4.8%
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What Is CRI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $3.23 to $71.87

CirclFi's 12 active models place Carter's, Inc. (CRI) between $3.23 and $71.87 per share, a spread of 143% of the median. The median of that range — $48.01 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CRI, against a current price of $33.55.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · EPV
$3.23median $48.01$71.87
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.23
Most bullish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$71.87
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CRI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CRI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Carter's, Inc. (CRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Carter's, Inc. at $33.55. With an estimated intrinsic value of $48.01 and 8 of 12 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +43.1%. The most optimistic model, EPV, places fair value at $71.87 (+114.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.23 (-90.4%). This +204.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Carter's, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CRI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CRI. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CRI is $48.01 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $28.03 on its own, implying -16.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CRI Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 35 Apparel Retail stocks, CRI ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Carter's, Inc.'s positioning within the Apparel Retail segment means that gross margin expansion plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CRI a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Carter's, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carter's, Inc. scores 7.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +204.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CRI's 12 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Carter's, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

GCOGenesco Inc.QOC 7.6CTRNCiti Trends, Inc.QOC 7.2LELands' End, Inc.QOC 7.7ZUMZZumiez Inc.QOC 7.2BURLBurlington Stores, Inc.QOC 7.8CALCaleres, Inc.QOC 7.0SFIXStitch Fix, Inc.QOC 6.2DBGIDigital Brands Group, Inc.QOC 3.6ROSTRoss Stores, Inc.QOC 8.4BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.2ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: GCO · CTRN · LE · ZUMZ · BURL · CAL · SFIX · DBGI · ROST · BKE · ANF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CRI?

7 companies across all industries closest to CRI’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

LRELead Real Estate Co., LtdQOC 7.6FERFerrovial N.V.QOC 7.6GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.QOC 7.6RMRegional Management Corp.QOC 7.6JAZZJazz Pharmaceuticals plcQOC 7.6DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LRE · FER · GILT · RM · JAZZ · DK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Carter's, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Carter's, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Carter's, Inc. (CRI)'s intrinsic value at $48.01 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.23 to $71.87. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $28.03 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.55, 8 of 12 active models suggest CRI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $48.01, 43.1% above the current price of $33.55 — a consensus view that CRI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Carter's, Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for CRI?

Carter's, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CRI?

CirclFi analyzes CRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CRI?

Of the 12 models currently active on CRI, Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bullish at $71.87 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.23. CirclFi's published fair value for CRI is the median of that range, $48.01, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 143% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CRI a value trap in 2026?

Carter's, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 38/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Carter's, Inc. (CRI) has a median fair value of $48.01 — 43.1% above the current price of $33.55 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CRI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CRI valuation
  • Financial statements: Carter's, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001060822) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CRI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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