Caleres, Inc. (CAL) Fair Value 2026

CAL · Apparel Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Caleres, Inc. (CAL) trades at $12.46, versus a $25.68 median fair value across its 10 active models — 106.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.21.

Key Facts

Ticker
CAL
Price
$12.46
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +77.6% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Caleres, Inc. (CAL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Caleres, Inc. (CAL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $25.68, 106.1% above the current price of $12.46. Estimates range from $1.21 to $47.79. CAL scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CAL’s +106.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Apparel Retail sector median is -0.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Caleres, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CAL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.46)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.21 -90.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $22.13 +77.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $21.12 +69.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.44 -40.3%
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What Is CAL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.21 to $47.79

CirclFi's 10 active models place Caleres, Inc. (CAL) between $1.21 and $47.79 per share, a spread of 181% of the median. The median of that range — $25.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CAL, against a current price of $12.46.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$1.21median $25.68$47.79
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$1.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$47.79
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CAL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CAL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Caleres, Inc. (CAL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Caleres, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $25.68. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $12.46 (implied upside of +106.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 10 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +283.5% (fair value: $47.79), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -90.3% ($1.21). The spread between these extremes — +373.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CAL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CAL. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CAL is $25.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.21 on its own, implying -90.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CAL Rank in Apparel Retail?

Among 36 Apparel Retail stocks, CAL ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Caleres, Inc.'s positioning within the Apparel Retail segment means that customer lifetime value (CLV) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including consumer spending resilience — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CAL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CAL a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Caleres, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Caleres, Inc. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +373.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CAL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CAL's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Caleres, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Apparel Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Apparel Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

CTRNCiti Trends, Inc.QOC 7.2BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0ZUMZZumiez Inc.QOC 7.2DLTHDuluth Holdings Inc.QOC 6.5CRICarter's, Inc.QOC 7.6SFIXStitch Fix, Inc.QOC 6.5JEM707 Cayman Holdings LimitedQOC 5.8ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1VSXYVictorias Secret & Co.QOC 8.0BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CTRN · BRIA · ZUMZ · DLTH · CRI · SFIX · JEM · ANF · VSXY · BKE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CAL?

7 companies across all industries closest to CAL’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.1SRPTSarepta Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.1ABUSArbutus Biopharma CorporationQOC 7.1MSSMaison Solutions Inc.QOC 7.1KIDSOrthoPediatrics Corp.QOC 7.1MTHMeritage Homes CorporationQOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IRWD · SRPT · ABUS · MSS · KIDS · MTH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Caleres, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Caleres, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Caleres, Inc. (CAL)'s intrinsic value at $25.68 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.21 to $47.79. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.21 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CAL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.46, 7 of 10 active models suggest CAL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $25.68, 106.1% above the current price of $12.46 — a consensus view that CAL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Caleres, Inc.'s business model in Apparel Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for CAL?

Caleres, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CAL?

CirclFi analyzes CAL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CAL?

Of the 10 models currently active on CAL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $47.79 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $1.21. CirclFi's published fair value for CAL is the median of that range, $25.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 181% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CAL a value trap in 2026?

Caleres, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Caleres, Inc. (CAL) has a median fair value of $25.68 — 106.1% above the current price of $12.46 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CAL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CAL valuation
  • Financial statements: Caleres, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000014707) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CAL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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