Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) Fair Value 2026

JAZZ · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) trades at $238.05, approximately 42% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $409.03. QOC: 7.6/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JAZZ
Price
$238.05
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +71.8% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($238.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$409.03 +71.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$40.35 -83.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$222.05 -6.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$63.43 -73.4%

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What Is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $157.93, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $238.05. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-33.7% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +112.4% (fair value: $505.71), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -96.3% ($8.75). The spread between these extremes — +208.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About JAZZ?

13 of 13 models are currently active for JAZZ. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates JAZZ's intrinsic value at $409.03, implying +71.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JAZZ Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 469 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, JAZZ ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

As a healthcare company, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc operates in a sector where FDA approval probability is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating JAZZ should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is JAZZ a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for JAZZ. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +208.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JAZZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JAZZ's 13 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AMPH · AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc

What is Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (JAZZ) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $409.03. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JAZZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $238.05, 2 of 13 active models suggest JAZZ may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for JAZZ?

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JAZZ?

CirclFi analyzes JAZZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is JAZZ a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for JAZZ at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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