AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Fair Value 2026

AGNC · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) trades at $10.90, versus a $11.06 median fair value across its 5 active models — 1.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGNC
Price
$10.90
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +1.4% upside with 22% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $11.06, within 1.4% of the current price of $10.90. Estimates range from $8.17 to $15.11. AGNC scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AGNC’s +1.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AGNC Investment Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AGNC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $11.06 +1.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.33 -5.3%
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What Is AGNC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $8.17 to $15.11

CirclFi's 5 active models place AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) between $8.17 and $15.11 per share, a spread of 63% of the median. The median of that range — $11.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AGNC, against a current price of $10.90.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$8.17median $11.06$15.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.17
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$15.11
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AGNC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AGNC Investment Corp. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $10.90. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $11.06 (+1.4% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 2 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $15.11 (+38.6%), versus Regime Cross at $8.17 (-25.1%). This +63.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AGNC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for AGNC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AGNC is $11.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGNC Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, AGNC ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

As a real estate investment trust, AGNC Investment Corp. operates in a sector where debt-to-EBITDA is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AGNC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AGNC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGNC a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for AGNC Investment Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, AGNC Investment Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +63.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGNC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGNC's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AGNC Investment Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

ABRArbor Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2TRTXTPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.QOC 7.2ACRACRES Commercial Realty Corp.QOC 7.2CHMICherry Hill Mortgage Investment CorporationQOC 7.2AOMRAngel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.QOC 7.5LADRLadder Capital CorpQOC 7.2RITMRithm Capital Corp.QOC 6.7CMTGClaros Mortgage Trust, Inc.QOC 5.2NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: ABR · TRTX · ACR · CHMI · AOMR · LADR · RITM · CMTG · NLY · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AGNC?

6 companies across all industries closest to AGNC’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

NEONNeonode Inc.QOC 7.2MOJOEQUATOR Beverage CompanyQOC 7.2UBCPUnited Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2CHCTCommunity Healthcare Trust IncorporatedQOC 7.2INGMIngram Micro Holding CorporationQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NEON · MOJO · UBCP · CHCT · INGM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AGNC Investment Corp.’s Valuation?

What is AGNC Investment Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)'s intrinsic value at $11.06 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $8.17 to $15.11. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGNC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.90, 3 of 5 active models suggest AGNC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $11.06, within 1.4% of the current price of $10.90 — a consensus view that AGNC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AGNC Investment Corp.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for AGNC?

AGNC Investment Corp.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGNC?

CirclFi analyzes AGNC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AGNC?

Of the 5 models currently active on AGNC, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $15.11 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $8.17. CirclFi's published fair value for AGNC is the median of that range, $11.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 63% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AGNC a value trap in 2026?

AGNC Investment Corp.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) has a median fair value of $11.06 — within 1.4% of the current price of $10.90 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AGNC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AGNC valuation
  • Financial statements: AGNC Investment Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001423689) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AGNC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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