AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCO) Fair Value 2026

AGNCO · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCO) trades at $25.34, approximately 251% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $7.23. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGNCO
Price
$25.34
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $7.23 -71.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $3.21 -87.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $13.85 -45.4%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $12.42 -51.0%

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What Is AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit's intrinsic value is estimated at $19.06. Trading at its current price of $25.35, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -24.8%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $84.33 (+232.7%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $3.21 (-87.3%). This +320.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AGNCO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AGNCO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AGNCO's intrinsic value at $7.23, implying -71.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGNCO Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 11 REIT - Mortgage stocks, AGNCO ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The REIT - Mortgage sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate businesses. For AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit, metrics like capitalization rate (cap rate) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AGNCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGNCO a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit earns a quality score of 6.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +320.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGNCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGNCO's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

ABRArbor Realty TrustQOC 8.1ACRACRES Commercial Realty Corp.QOC 7.8AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.QOC 6.1AGNCLAGNC Investment Corp. - DepositQOC 6.0AGNCMAGNC Investment Corp. - DepositQOC 6.0AGNCNAGNC Investment Corp. - DepositQOC 6.0AGNCPAGNC Investment Corp. - DepositQOC 6.0AGNCZAGNC Investment Corp. - DepositQOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: ABR · ACR · AGNC · AGNCL · AGNCM

Frequently Asked Questions About AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit

What is AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $7.23. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGNCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.34, 2 of 12 active models suggest AGNCO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit's business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for AGNCO?

AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit's QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGNCO?

CirclFi analyzes AGNCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AGNCO a value trap in 2026?

AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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