MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) Fair Value 2026

MFA · REIT - Mortgage ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) trades at $8.83, versus a $9.10 median fair value across its 6 active models — 3.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MFA
Price
$8.83
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +9.6% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $9.10, within 3.1% of the current price of $8.83. Estimates range from $1.80 to $14.90. MFA scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MFA’s +3.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the REIT - Mortgage sector median is +8.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MFA Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MFA?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.80 -79.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $8.53 -3.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.68 +9.6%
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What Is MFA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $1.80 to $14.90

CirclFi's 6 active models place MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) between $1.80 and $14.90 per share, a spread of 144% of the median. The median of that range — $9.10 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MFA, against a current price of $8.83.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.80median $9.10$14.90
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$1.80
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$14.90
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MFA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MFA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MFA Financial, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $8.83. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $9.10 (+3.1% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 2 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $14.90 (+68.7%), versus EPV at $1.80 (-79.6%). This +148.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MFA?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MFA. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MFA is $9.10 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MFA Rank in REIT - Mortgage?

Among 38 REIT - Mortgage stocks, MFA ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places MFA in the top tier.

The REIT - Mortgage sector introduces analytical considerations specific to real estate investment trust businesses. For MFA Financial, Inc., metrics like weighted average lease term (WALT) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MFA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MFA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for MFA Financial, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, MFA Financial, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.1/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MFA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MFA's 6 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MFA Financial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Mortgage Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Mortgage stocks with 13-model coverage

ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2NLYAnnaly Capital Management, Inc.QOC 8.1ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2EFCEllington Financial Inc.QOC 8.1MITTTPG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2IVRInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc.QOC 8.0ACRACRES Commercial Realty Corp.QOC 7.2NREFNexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 6.8TWOTwo Harbors Investment Corp.QOC 5.4ORCOrchid Island Capital, Inc.QOC 8.6FBRTFranklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: ARI · NLY · ADAM · EFC · MITT · IVR · ACR · NREF · TWO · ORC · FBRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MFA?

7 companies across all industries closest to MFA’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.1SRADSportradar Group AGQOC 8.1HUBGHub Group, Inc.QOC 8.1ELFe.l.f. Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.1GDRXGoodRx Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1ABCBAmeris BancorpQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AIR · SRAD · HUBG · ELF · GDRX · ABCB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MFA Financial, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MFA Financial, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA)'s intrinsic value at $9.10 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.80 to $14.90. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MFA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.83, 3 of 6 active models suggest MFA may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $9.10, within 3.1% of the current price of $8.83 — a consensus view that MFA is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MFA Financial, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Mortgage.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for MFA?

MFA Financial, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MFA?

CirclFi analyzes MFA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MFA?

Of the 6 models currently active on MFA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $14.90 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $1.80. CirclFi's published fair value for MFA is the median of that range, $9.10, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 144% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MFA a value trap in 2026?

MFA Financial, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) has a median fair value of $9.10 — within 3.1% of the current price of $8.83 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MFA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MFA valuation
  • Financial statements: MFA Financial, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001055160) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MFA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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